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Warriors Film Breakdown: The room for error shrinks as Steph Curry operates in a small space
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Warriors Film Breakdown: The room for error shrinks as Steph Curry operates in a small space

Injuries are often unforeseeable events with no apparent cause or justification. They can appear out of the blue as often as they occur due to antecedent causes or factors. For Stephen Curry, who suffered two left ankle rollovers in the Golden State Warriors’ 112-104 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, the second, worse rollover could definitely have been a result of him trying out an ankle that was already was impaired during the first attack.

The first one happened seemingly out of the blue. An attempt to plant his left foot resulted in a moment of traction overload, resulting in a slight ankle flexion and a limping Curry, who was scheduled to be subbed out anyway according to his typical minute pattern. This had neither an antecedent nor a precursor – at least not in the obvious sense.

There’s no question that Curry is the only true shot maker and scorer on the team – in sharp contrast to their opponents in the Clippers, who were buoyed by Norman Powell’s microwave scoring (20 points on 8 of 15 shooting, a night later) from Denver Nuggets on fire with 37 points on 14 of 21 shooting) and an exceptional performance from Ivica Zubac (23 points and 18 rebounds), which acted as a much-needed source of additional points for James Harden, who scored 23 points, but on an inefficient one Scoring clip (6 of 19 from the field, 2 of 12 on threes).

While the first two games seemed to be proof that Curry has the scoring support he needs this season, it was also against two rebuilding teams that don’t have the same quality of players on the roster. Buddy Hield scored a total of 49 points on 12 of 16 shooting from distance in the first two games – he crashed back to earth against the Clippers with eight points on 3 of 14 shooting from the field and just a single three-point from nine Attempt.

There’s no doubt that Hield can be a source of red-hot scoring if he can find a rhythm early on, which was the case against the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz. However, under Ty Lue, the Clippers were much more aware of the dangers of a Hield explosion — and took steps to account for it, especially since Hield’s minutes were separated from Curry’s in that crucial stretch beginning at about the three-minute mark of the first quarter (where Curry usually subs out) until about the eight-minute mark of the second quarter (where Curry subs out again).

With Hield the only potential scorer, check out how the Clippers manage to keep him in check below:

Conventional coverage for a moving shooter like Hield would be to deny him access to the away screen and force him to the baseline. But Amir Coffey instead opts for lock and trail – that is, staying close behind Hield, following Hield’s path around the screen and standing in front of him for an open look, with Coffey’s big partner (Kai Jones) dropping Coverage plays. This may seem counterintuitive in theory, but Coffey successfully manages to get to the top. He forces Hield in and saves him with the help of Jones. Previous tracking data may have informed Coffey, Jones and the Clippers’ decision to use this coverage against Hield: Last season with the Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers, Hield was 13 of 41 (31.7%) on three-pointers around an off-duel. The ball screen comes to his left, according to Synergy tracking.

It also doesn’t help that Hield is a below-average operator as a pick-and-roll ballhandler: 0.775 points per possession in pick-and-rolls with the Pacers and Sixers last season, albeit on a low number of possessions (167 ). But there’s a good reason this number is low. Asking Hield to be the pick-and-roll ballhandler at some point isn’t a mere departure from his preferred role — it’s a big step out of his comfort zone, especially when there’s a big gap in defensive quality between the front two consists of two opponents and the Clippers (as evidenced by them sending two balls down the field against Hield and intercepting the expected pass to the short roll – ironically something Hield himself did against the Blazers):

Therefore, Hield’s below-average effectiveness as a pick-and-roll ballhandler requires him to be somewhat effective as an off-ball mover scurrying across screens. To Steve Kerr’s credit, he tried to make Hield a more effective playmaker on the screen while minimizing the need for him to dribble and hit the ball.

When Kerr calls for “Thumb Chin” (from her “Thumb” series of phrases adapted from Terry Stotts), it is to put Hield in the empty corner with Kevon Looney and provide much-needed offense without her primary offensive source create creation:

Aside from the possibility that the Clippers’ coverage of Hield may have been dictated by tracking data, Hield had plenty of other opportunities and looks where he clearly missed shots, which also happens. For him it was not a question of “if” but of “when”. Coincidentally, the answer to “when” lay in the third game of the season against the Clippers, much earlier than the Warriors would have liked.

What the Warriors would also have preferred was a win to continue their momentum – or at least come out of the game with a clean bill of health. Unfortunately, with Curry’s ankle drop, there’s a chance they won’t have their superstar for a few games. But they also didn’t help themselves to create the space necessary for Curry to act with room to breathe.

There have been many opinions about the current starting lineup of Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green and Trayce Jackson-Davis. After three games, this group of five are two points ahead overall – which isn’t good considering they’ve played the most minutes, but also not as bad as some people might have thought.

However, the problem of distances still exists. In the first two games against inferior opponents, the results in the first half were not particularly good; Against the Clippers, a team better prepared to expose the warts, the difficulty was that Curry had to operate in a figurative phone booth.

Watch Curry try to drive in with this obsession – before he sees a forest of branches standing in his way:

If you look closer, you can see how many people are committed to countering Curry’s actions:

Derrick Jones Jr. and Zubac overwhelm Curry with their length, while Terance Mann is fully committed to helping Green score on Jackson-Davis. Harden doesn’t pay any attention to Wiggins (he stands up to make a potential finish difficult), but Curry has no vision behind him. Kuminga stays at the dunker spot, which limits space even further as Powell stays with him. Curry has to pass out of a bad situation, but he doesn’t have a viable passing lane. As such, he committed one of his six turnovers and one of 21 the Warriors conceded.

Curry deserves his fair share of turnovers and, for lack of a better term, bonehead decision-making. But he also doesn’t have to work as hard (and therefore reduce his risk of injury) to generate offense when he has viable options next to him on the field. Wiggins was a shining beacon and showed promise as a second option against the Clippers: 29 points on 11 of 15 field shots, 5 of 8 on threes and an 88.8% shooting percentage. But that could be different in scenarios where Curry isn’t there to provide relief on offense and the nature of Wiggins’ usage, even if he did some of his damage, changes when Curry isn’t on the field was available. It’s also appropriate to be cautious given Wiggins’ consistency over the past two seasons.

This micro problem has become a macro problem for Steve Kerr and his coaching staff, who have been juggling a 12-man rotation and showing no signs of paring it down to a more manageable number. With Curry’s ankle sprain adding injury on top of insult, things don’t get any easier as the margin for trial and error allowed becomes smaller and smaller – as small as the margin Curry sees with the current starting group.

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