“Why is this race even close?” said former first lady Michelle Obama on Saturday in her first appearance alongside Democratic candidate Kamala Harris on the Michigan campaign trail, urging people to elect “America’s first female president.”

Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump appears to be ahead of Harris in the final stretch of the campaign. The United States presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 5th.

Harris’ popularity is declining compared to the previous month after experiencing a major resurgence over the summer. Various polls and estimates show that Trump is on par with Harris or even ahead of him. The race had started to heat up a few weeks ago.

What the polls say about Trump and Harris
According to the New York Times, nine national polls from “select pollsters” (meaning they meet certain criteria for reliability) released last week show a close race. “Three showed a tie, including the Times/Siena College poll, and three showed Ms. Harris ahead. Her best poll, an ABC News/Ipsos poll, showed her ahead by four points. On the other hand, three of the polls showed Mr. Harris ahead “Trump ahead – his best, the Wall Street Journal poll showed him ahead by three points,” the NYT article said.

Two weeks ago, an NBC poll showed Trump and Harris tied nationally, both with 48 percent support, as Trump erased Harris’ lead this month. Trump is in a dead heat with Harris, up four points compared to the September NBC poll, while Harris fell one point behind. The September NBC polls showed Trump at 44 percent and Harris with a 5 percentage point lead at 49 percent. “As summer turned into fall, there was no sign of momentum for Kamala Harris,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who worked with Republican pollster Bill McInturff to conduct the NBC poll. “The race is a dead heat.”

Republican pollster McInturff said Harris’ popularity has waned as the vice president represents no change from President Joe Biden and voters view Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s. “She’s asking the incumbent party for another term,” McInturff said. A few days later, Nate Silver said it was now literally 50/50 between Harris and Trump. “We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3-type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate. “It wasn’t a big turnaround, but even half a point to a point makes a difference,” said the Silver Bulletin. The New York Times and Sienna College released their latest poll a few days ago, showing Harris and Trump in a dead heat in the popular vote – 48 percent to 48 percent. The contest between Harris and Trump is equally close in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump may score big on immigration, but the abortion issue could benefit Harris. Harris is also narrowing the gap to Trump on the economic issue – because more respondents now trust Harris on the economic issue than in previous surveys.

The poll found that the 9 percent of Americans who said they had already voted leaned heavily toward Harris — 59 percent to 40 percent. This is a tradition that Democrats generally win in early voting and absentee voting. Harris has a lead over Trump in the women’s vote: Harris leads Trump among women, 54 percent to 42 percent, while Trump leads Harris among men, 55 percent to 41 percent.

The betting market is betting a lot of money on Trump
Bettors have extended Trump’s lead over Harris in the presidential betting odds. The increase comes a week after the Wall Street Journal reported that large bets were made at cryptocurrency-based betting firm Polymarket that dramatically changed Trump odds and raised questions about their accuracy, USA Today reported.

Trump’s biggest lead in the action, which U.S. bookmakers cannot get in on, is with offshore bookmaker BetOnline, where the former president is -200 to the vice president’s +170, according to USA Today’s report.

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866. Hillary Clinton’s odds were -323, but Clinton lost the election in one of the two cases where the underdog won on election night. The other surprise came in 1948 when Harry Truman (D) beat his odds of defeating Thomas Dewey (R) by eight to one.

According to the NYT, players on Polymarket have bet more than $100 million on the outcome of the presidential election using digital currencies, making the site the internet betting phenomenon of the 2024 election. But the polymarket numbers on Trump may not really be what they seem. According to an analysis of transaction records by crypto data provider Chaos Labs, the odds on Polymarket began favoring him this month after just four accounts with usernames like Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro bet more than $30 million on a Trump victory had.

Bloomberg reported that, according to blockchain data from Dune.com, almost half of the total buying volume on Polymarket comes from 670 electricity traders, representing 0.7% of all accounts.

What “frozen” Kamala Harris’ momentum
Pollster and communications strategist Frank Luntz told CNN that a change in strategy has “frozen” Harris’ historic momentum.

Luntz said Harris improved her prospects when she focused on why she should be elected president. “She had the best 60 days of any presidential candidate in modern history,” he said. “And then the moment she became anti-Trump, focused on him and said, ‘Don’t vote for me, vote against him,’ that’s when everything froze.”

Luntz said Harris’ change of strategy could lead to her defeat. “The fact is that Donald Trump is defined,” he said. “He doesn’t win, he doesn’t lose. He is who he is and his voice is where it is. She is less clearly defined, and if she continues to define this race as just ‘vote against Trump,’ she will stay where she is now and she could lose.”

(With contributions from agencies)