The first week of early voting revealed some trends that surprised many political forecasters, pundits and campaigners. Above all else is the revelation that Republicans appear to have decided to embrace the idea of ​​early voting.

It was clear Friday that GOP voters were excited to show up early and cast their ballots — even though Trump Republicans had discouraged such behavior for years and sowed doubt about the process.

The results of this newfound love of early voting have been quite impressive. As The Nevada Independent‘s CEO and publisher Jon Ralston described it as saying that the Republican Party’s early advantage was “unprecedented” in any other presidential election cycle, raising serious concerns about Democrats’ campaigns, which had previously been considered nearly stagnant.

No wonder national Republicans decided to finally pour some money into the state at the last minute for a U.S. Senate run they had otherwise largely ignored.

The early numbers certainly give Republicans cause for optimism, but there is still a lot of uncertainty as we head into the second week of early voting. In fact, the only lesson one can draw with confidence from the first week’s data is that, like most political news these days, there is little about this election that could be described as “normal.”

For pundits, campaigners and strategists, this year’s relentlessly abnormal political environment makes Nevada an even harder state to understand – as if it weren’t difficult enough with our changing electorate, 24/7 tourism industry and large minority communities. Nevada has long amazed pollsters and professional political consultants with our fiercely independent electorate — but things could get even tougher.

As Politically points out that the explosion of voters in the state choosing to avoid both major parties has made things infinitely more complicated for activists and campaigns. As an organizer who took part in the vote said Politically“Polls (in Nevada) are not real…Nevada is a black box.”

This has certainly been confirmed in recent years. While the current polls reflect the mood of voters in the Silver State fairly accurately, they’re still not much help. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are effectively stuck in a tie or have evidence well within the margin of error, leaving experts with little more than historical trends on which to base their predictions about how things will turn out could November.

Based on these trends, one might think that Democrats should enjoy some advantage in the state’s “new normal” of universal mail-in voting, early voting and automatic voter registration. After all, a large percentage of the state’s nonpartisan voters are those who were automatically registered with the DMV — and many of them are younger voters who are far more likely to align with Democrats than Republicans, regardless of their official party affiliation.

Likewise, the growing influence of the state’s Latino community should have been an automatic advantage for a well-organized Democratic machine in the Silver State – and make no mistake, the Democrats certainly have a well-organized political machine thanks to the efforts of late U.S. Senator Harry Reid.

However, those advantages don’t mean much if they don’t translate into actual votes — and given the sheer number of Republican ballots cast last week, those votes will need to show up en masse for Democrats to keep their hopes alive. The fact that Democrats failed miserably to put up a “firewall” last week is undoubtedly a headache for progressive strategists and candidates who were previously quite confident about the prospects for 2024.

However, Republicans shouldn’t get too complacent about their “outrageous” early leads. Given Republicans’ general distrust of mail-in voting, it’s safe to assume the Democratic Party will have a significant lead over voters who rely on the Postal Service to deliver their ballots – whether that will be enough to make up for their initial deficit is anyone’s guess a question of truth the only question.

What does it all mean? Well, that means you should probably read it The IndyIf you want to stay informed, read the early voting blog daily—or just cast your vote, sit back, and focus on something less anxiety-inducing until November 5th.

This also means that, as has been the case throughout the election cycle so far, you should probably prepare for more of the unexpected.

The only real constant in this election cycle from the start has been its stark departure from historical norms. Political news was essentially a frantic parade of breaking headlines that we’re hardly used to seeing in regular election cycles – including last-minute candidate changes, surprising policy recommendations and even assassination attempts. There is little reason to believe that things will suddenly become predictable at this late date.

Republicans embracing early voting is just another reminder of how unexpected things have happened in our current political universe. After all, who would have thought that the party that has tirelessly promoted conspiracy theories about early voting and mail-in ballots would build a significant lead in early voting?

Maybe, just maybe, Trump loyalists in the Republican Party have finally realized that such reforms are useful for actually trying to win elections rather than just scapegoating their past losses.

Michael Schaus is a communications and branding expert based in Las Vegas, Nevada, and founder of Schaus Creative LLC – an agency dedicated to helping organizations, companies and activists tell their stories and inspire change. He has more than a decade of experience commenting on public affairs, working as a news director, columnist, political humorist, and most recently as communications director for a public policy think tank. Follow him at SchausCreative.com or on Twitter at @schausmichael.