It is no exaggeration that a new era begins in Paris this evening. For the first time since 2003, a Ballon d’Or will be awarded without Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo on the shortlist. A first winner of football’s most coveted individual prize is guaranteed.

Father Time has decided it is the next generation’s turn and a new football king will finally be named at a glittering ceremony at the Théâtre du Châtelet in the French capital.

Vinicius Junior is the overwhelming favorite after his brilliant 2023/24 season with Real Madrid. Fans at the Bernabeu repeatedly chanted “Ballon d’Or, Vinicius Ballon d’Or” after the 24-year-old scored a hat-trick in last week’s 5-2 win over Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League replay of the final in June, when he also scored a goal in the 2-0 win.

Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti didn’t need any further convincing. “In my opinion Vinicius Jr. will win the Ballon d’Or,” he told reporters after last week’s hat-trick. “He will get the award.”

That’s the expectation of most observers, but its competitors have their own demands. Manchester City’s maverick midfielder Rodri led Spain to glory at Euro 2024 and Jude Bellingham’s successful debut season with Real Madrid also earned global recognition.

This means we will almost certainly have a Ballon d’Or winner in his 20s for the first time since 2015. The conclusion of the book on Messi and Ronaldo provides an opportunity for a new figure to be promoted to the highest level. The football world will be watching, as will those desperate to commit to the next big club.

“Commercially it will be something of a statement,” says Owen Laverty, chief innovation officer at Ear to the Ground, a leading sports and entertainment marketing agency based in Manchester.

“The 2026 World Championships (in the United States, Canada and Mexico) will be very challenging from a commercial perspective and any orders we would receive as an agency will ask who are the horses they should support. This is the first indicator of a change from the previous era.”

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo at the Ballon d’Or Gala 2015 (Philipp Schmidli/Getty Images)

Winning the Ballon d’Or carries no direct financial reward (there is no prize money), but it is a powerful endorsement and a surefire way to take her image to the next level. This inevitably brings better sponsorship deals and increased interest.

In all likelihood, tonight’s winner will be assured of a long-ago-arranged windfall. Promotion contracts for top-level players typically include a clause that is triggered if they win the Ballon d’Or, a mutually beneficial agreement that serves as the impetus for success. Even memorabilia suddenly becomes more valuable when it is signed by the best player in the world.

“Most players will have a clause in their boot contracts that they will get a big bonus if they win the Ballon d’Or,” says Ehsen Shah, managing director of B-Engaged, an international sports marketing agency.

“This will be the only commercial deal where winning the Ballon d’Or will necessarily give you that profit, but you will also get other endorsement deals where your value is higher.

“The companies that sign you will pay more for you because you are considered the best player in the world. Everyone wants to have the signed football boots or jerseys of the best player in the world.

“They are the only two who are directly affected, and everyone else is subjective about whether or not a brand fits that person based on their performance.

“You can’t say chronologically that Pepsi, for example, will only compete with the Ballon d’Or winner. You can try to charge more in the market, but you can only charge what the brands are willing to pay. Has anyone been so influenced by the Ballon d’Or? That’s subjective.”

And largely untested. Only Luka Modric (2018) and Karim Benzema (2022) have broken Messi and Ronaldo’s duopoly since the latter won the first of his five awards as a Manchester United player in 2008. Vinicius Jr., already a Nike figurehead, is prepared to be the next test case.

“The big unknown that people are talking about is the commercial impact of a win,” says Laverty. “We believe it makes a difference, but it is untested.

“In the last 15 years we have only had two players who were neither Messi nor Ronaldo. Benzema won it, but then couldn’t take part in the 2022 World Cup and went to Saudi Arabia. There was a surge of commercial interest in him, but it evaporated so quickly that it is difficult to prove this theory.

“With the Ballon d’Or Feminin (the women’s award) it is clear that there are commercial implications. People don’t know the players that well and you almost have to tell them who is the best.

“It was a really useful tool in the marketing and branding world because it was a shortcut. Aitana Bonmati (last year’s winner) immediately became a name that people wanted to engage with.”

Bonmati won the prize last year (Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Images)

The reality is that the best male footballers such as Vinicius Jr., Rodri, Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland and Lamine Yamal already have a well-stocked list of brand partnerships. The fact that they have come this far in their careers has earned them several seven-figure contracts. Their faces are already familiar.

However, the Ballon d’Or can still make a difference.

“If you were to work with the Ballon d’Or winner, you would have to increase commercial deals by at least 25 to 50 percent,” adds Shah. “You get to say you’re working with the best, and it’s all backed up by an award. LeBron James has done that very well over the years (in the NBA). Its brand partners are aligned with this elite, record-breaking GOAT marketing.”

In the age of Messi and Ronaldo, the Ballon d’Or became a completely different trophy. It has always been a worthy prize, first awarded in 1956 to Englishman Stanley Matthews at the ripe old age of 41, but its importance has increased in an era marked by two indefatigable figures.

Messi and Ronaldo won 13 of 15 Ballons d’Or between 2008 and 2023 and this rivalry has left a lasting impression.

“The cult of personality is stronger than ever,” says Ged Colleypriest, a sports marketing expert. “The rise of the Ballon d’Or coincides with the age of social media, the constant debate about who the GOAT is. The Ballon d’Or is confirmation of this.

“It is used to compare individuals and it has become much more important in the age of social media where we feel the need to say who is better than someone else. Whether you agree with the result or not, the Ballon d’Or has become part of the conversation.

“We have now reached the post-Messi and Ronaldo era, and that creates a bit of tension for the new claimants to the throne.”

Messi and Ronaldo have undeniably made the Ballon d’Or important. Or at least more than before.

Mbappe has spoken openly of his ambition to win the big prize and some big transfers, such as Anthony Martial’s move from Monaco to Manchester United in 2015, contain an additional clause in the event the player wins a Ballon d’Or wins.

The title itself, French for “golden ball,” has found its way into football parlance. Experts speak of an intangible, mythical Ballon d’Or level, sparking debate about a player’s ability. TNT’s Rio Ferdinand opted to simply repeat the name of the award nine times when Vinicius Jr. scored in the Champions League final at Wembley in a 30-second clip that later went viral.

Anyone watching Vinicius Jr.’s performance… pic.twitter.com/Gsy4t4SbY2

– Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) October 22, 2024

It’s hard to imagine anyone thinking immediately about Zinedine Zidane when he won the World Cup with France in 1998, but football’s focus is increasingly on the individual.

“If we were talking 20 years ago and talking about the greatest players of all time, we would list the number of titles they won,” says Laverty.

“I’m not sure that at any point we would have said, ‘And he’s got three Ballon d’Ors and he’s only got one’. This has always been NBA and NFL language. You would say a player has X number of titles. With the Ballon d’Or this is becoming more and more commonplace in football.

“All the research we’ve done shows that it’s going to continue to move toward the NFL/NBA model where personal stats and awards become really important because they show that person’s success. The Ballon d’Or is important for younger fans.”

Change is also important. The commercial power of a new MVP in American sports can be boosted overnight, and these awards traditionally count for much more than a Ballon d’Or. The subtle shift in football, whereby players as well as teams can be followed by younger fans, means that individual honors carry greater validation. And if the Ballon d’Or holds greater significance for younger fans, so does brands eyeing major partnerships.

“When you win MVP in the NBA, the way brands perceive you changes completely,” says Shah. “In NBA culture, the broadcast is on and every commercial break has an NBA player on it. We don’t necessarily have that culture in Europe.

“The market has now developed further. You have Mbappe with a good list of marks, Bellingham with a good list of marks, Vinicius and Yamal. Your commercial work is already done.

“These brands are all betting on this player to be a Ballon d’Or winner.”

Don’t write off Messi and Ronaldo, football’s commercial giants, especially since neither has ruled out a last dance at the 2026 World Cup. But the name read out in Paris tonight will provide the strongest indication yet of where the line of succession will lead.

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(Top photos: Getty Images; Design: Eamonn Dalton)