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    • Trump and Harris are neck and neck
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    Trump and Harris are neck and neck

    Bronwen Cerys Posted on

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    WASHINGTON – Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been neck and neck in polls for weeks, a trend that shows no signs of changing, according to two polls released Sunday.

    A CBS News/YouGov poll showed Harris leading Trump among likely voters nationally by a 50-49% margin, down slightly from a 51-48% lead in mid-October but well within the poll’s margin of error.

    An ABC News/Ipsos poll showed Harris leading Trump among likely voters 51% to 47%, which was partly to Harris’ advantage among female voters. The results are slightly outside the survey’s margin of error, namely +/-2.5 percentage points.

    Pollsters agreed that the election will likely hinge on which campaign gets better votes in the run-up to Election Day. This is particularly true in the seven battleground states that are widely expected to decide the race for the White House.

    Here’s what you need to know about the presidential election results on Sunday, October 27.

    ABC: Harris is up – but the race is still close

    While ABC reported that Harris has a 51% to 47% lead among likely voters statewide, ABC noted that the race was too close in the crucial states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada to call.

    The race is also tougher among all registered voters, not just those expected to cast a ballot this year. Harris leads Trump 49% to 47%, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

    The survey was conducted online in English and Spanish from Oct. 18 to 22 among 2,808 adults. The sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points for likely voters, +/- 2 percentage points for registered voters, and +/- 5.5 percentage points in swing states.

    Economy, border most important for Republicans; Democrats say: health care, democracy

    The ABC News/Ipsos poll, like others, showed both campaigns trying to build coalitions around specific issues.

    Harris has advantages with voters who support access to health care and want to protect democracy; Trump scores points with voters who care about the economy and immigration policy.

    Of Democratic pollsters who registered to vote, 90% said health care was very important to them, compared to 64% of Republicans. Additionally, 91% of Democrats said the same about “protecting American democracy,” compared to 80% of Republicans.

    On the other hand, 96% of registered Republican voters surveyed said the economy is very important to them, compared to 86% of Democrats. And 90% of Republican poll respondents said “the immigration system at the U.S.-Mexico border” is very important, as did 50% of Democrats.

    CBS: Trump, Harris at an impasse

    CBS found that Harris is one percentage point ahead of Trump nationally and the two are tied 50% to 50% in battleground states.

    The medium pointed to demographic factors, particularly what could lead to a record-breaking gender gap. Female voters are 10 percentage points more likely than men to say that “only Kamala Harris has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, and Trump does not.”

    Overall, 55% of Democratic pollsters likely to vote this fall said they would choose Harris at the ballot box, compared with 45% of Democratic men surveyed. When it comes to Trump, 43% of Republican women said they support the former president, compared to 54% of Republican men.

    The CBS/YouGov poll was conducted between Oct. 23 and Oct. 25 among 1,261 voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points and the swing states examined include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    What you should consider when taking surveys

    The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

    If a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

    Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump’s performance.

    Contributor: Kinsey Crowley

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    Bronwen Cerys
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