Lightweights

Myktybek Orolbai (13-1-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (19-2, 3-1 UFC)

OPPORTUNITIES: Orolbai (-310), Rebecki (+250)

This is an intriguing matchup between two fun lightweights on the fringes of the rankings. Poland’s Rebecki seemed ready to make an impact after his 2022 win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Rebecki has already proven himself well on the regional scene and ticks many boxes as a powerful athlete with an engaging style who applies great pressure and focuses on running over his opponents. “Rebeasti” also proved to be a potential contender in 2023. A muscle-bound bowler, Rebecki demonstrated surprisingly effective close-range striking and the ability to defeat an opponent over three rounds. Rebecki’s first match of 2024, against Diego Ferreira in May, seemed to be the start of bigger things, but instead it ended in a shocking defeat. Rebecki assumed he would outlast the late-career version of Ferreira. However, Ferreira delivered a top-notch performance, testing Rebecki’s struggles hard and scoring a late finish when the Pole was exhausted. It’s hard to say if this is a cause for concern, especially since it looks like Rebecki’s game is what it is and will continue to be effective against a large number of opponents. Orolbai is a solid next test to see exactly what Rebecki needs to change going forward.

Kyrgyzstan player Orolbai was a prospect to keep an eye on before he got the delayed UFC call in November. A high-scoring wrestler, Orolbai was in the process of developing a rapidly improving striking game heading into his UFC debut, and through two fights he appeared to be quite successful at putting his nose to the grindstone and attempting to dominate his opponents . He defeated Uros Medic in that debut, and although he tired late against Elves Brener in May, it was still impressive to see Orolbai get over the finish line with a win against one of the UFC’s most inexhaustible lightweights. It’s hard to say exactly what the balance of this match will be, as two strong wrestlers face off at a stage where they rarely lose. It seems unlikely that either will get a quick finish, and given their respective recent fights, the biggest guarantee seems to be that Orolbai will do much better when it comes to maintaining composure even when exhausted and on the stretch to fight. The pick is Orolbai due to an interception in the third round.

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