The data is clear: There will be surprises in the MLS Cup playoffs. Home advantage counts (sorry, Portland Timbers).

In last year’s Audi MLS Cup Playoffs, 20 of 28 home teams won and seven of the eight higher-seeded teams advanced to round one. Surprises may (mostly) be a thing of the past as great teams take care of business and good (or sometimes just good) playoff teams go home early.

We’ll see, right? That’s the beauty of the late season.

Like a meteorologist, I cannot be held responsible for the incorrect forecasts here!

Surprise forecast: Five percent chance

If Atlanta United had a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs on decision day, their chances of defeating Inter Miami in a three-game series would be significantly lower. Rob Valentino and the boys are in FEA mode – ask Tom Brady what that stands for – but now they have to face the most talented team this league has ever seen.

How can the Five Stripes shock the world? Four keys for me…

• No fatal defensive mistakes. You might be able to survive against Montreal, but against Miami? Hello, blowout.
• Alexey Miranchuk needs to play like a $13 million player. They know Messi and friends (and acquaintances…and homegrown/SuperDraft picks no one expected to contribute) will show up. Miranchuk needs to create some game-winning moments.
• Be efficient in the transition. Atlanta should never have let Montreal go to penalties. Saba, Thiaré/Ríos and whoever plays on the other wing must make and execute the right decisions when Miami gives them opportunities to break through. These opportunities will come.
• Start Dax McCarty. If Atlanta couldn’t get the ball and have even a little control of the game against Montreal, what chance do they have against Miami? I would like to see McCarty start with Ajani Fortune just to give the team some leadership, personality and bravery on the ball.

Surprise forecast: 15 percent chance

There’s your bulletin board material, Chris Armas.

Too many key injury question marks – according to the Burgundy Wave, Cole Bassett and Zack Steffen are currently back in full training, while Djordje Mihailovic is unlikely to be involved in Game 1 – and poor form over the last month (one win, against Toronto, and five losses) means , that I’m skeptical that the Rapids can spoil the Galaxy’s season.

However, the recipe for a Galaxy riot isn’t particularly complicated, although it’s easier to say than do.

• Stay compact and organized to limit the space (in midfield for Riqui Puig, isolated and at the back for Gabriel Pec and Joseph Paintsil) where LA’s Killer Ps thrive.
• When isolated, slow LA’s momentum and win the 1v1 battles, especially on the wings (which is why the Rapids signed Reggie Cannon).
• Play direct and go straight to the center backs as the Galaxy push the numbers forward.
• Set pieces, set pieces, set pieces (a clear weakness of LA).

Can the Rapids implement all of these things? Yes, absolutely. Will they? Highly unlikely.

Surprise forecast: 55 percent chance

This is the surprise that I am most confident can and will happen.

Orlando is actually better away from home this year than at the Inter&Co Stadium. Especially at home, they often have problems with teams that hold back, clogging up space in the attacking half and forcing them to create chances through long periods of possession.

That’s Charlotte in a nutshell: Presumptive MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Kristijan Kahlina spares most of the defensive redness, and now Dean Smith’s Designated Players are shooting, too. That last part is crucial, as is the change Smith made by moving Tim Ream to left guard to better balance the offense with one of the league’s best defenses. Charlotte may have lost 2-0 in Orlando in September, but that was a much different group than the one entering the playoffs without a wild-card game for the first time after four wins in five years.

This series is basically a bad decision.

Surprise forecast: 30 percent chance

So you’re saying there’s a chance? “Caps vs. LAFC in the playoffs is déjà vu all over again.”

Last year, Steve Cherundolo and Co. defeated Vanni Sartini and Vancouver 5-2 and 1-0 in the first round. Since then, the Canadian team has played much closer against LAFC. They beat them on penalties in the League Cup group stage just a few weeks ago, losing a thriller in second-half stoppage time.

Beating LAFC looks a lot like beating Portland, only with a much higher level of difficulty.

• Win the standard battle. Offensive, sure, but defense is just as important. Last year, LAFC scored four set-piece goals in the first leg, a 5-2 win.
• Stay organized behind the ball to prevent Denis Bouanga, Mateusz Bogusz and Cristian Olivera from celebrating in rotation.
• Don’t be afraid to press in the right places, find the foot of a Scotsman (Ryan Gauld or Stu Armstrong) and GO.
• Big players – Gauld, Armstrong, Brian White and Fafà Picault – must be bigger than LAFC’s elite talent.

It could definitely happen! It probably won’t.

Surprise forecast: 40 percent chance

This smells a little fishy, ​​especially because FC Cincinnati just hasn’t looked like itself throughout the second half of the season.

And yet I find it hard to believe that Pat Noonan’s side can’t do the job against a NYCFC team that was in a three-game mirage late in the season but otherwise failed to win in the other ten games had jammed around it.

One of Cincinnati’s uncharacteristic Achilles heels this year has been poor turnovers, followed by problems defending in space – problems that have been exacerbated by injuries, suspensions and international absences in the backline.

NYCFC is at its best when they aren’t afraid to skip a line or two and go straight for the goal. Alonso Martínez thrives in these conditions, as does Santi Rodríguez. They have to take advantage of these chances and hope that Lucho Acosta and Luca Orellano (now a striker?!?) are both loose on the ball in the build-up and are sloppy in the final third.

Surprise forecast: 35 percent chance

This is probably closer than my prediction suggests, but I just can’t get over Houston’s head-to-head record against Seattle. Since the start of 2017, the Sounders have recorded 12 wins (9/9 at home), one draw and two losses against Dynamo. This is Halloween House of Horrors stuff.

And yes, you’re right, this is a different Houston team, even if one that needs to keep margins tight is similar to the Sounders in many ways. I don’t expect this to be a particularly high-scoring series.

The key to Houston? Pay off possession through Ezequiel Ponce and anyone else who can help out on any given day. I know the Dynamo can limit Seattle’s chances, but their lack of firepower could be their undoing.

(On that note, I’m still angry about Lawrence Ennali’s season-ending injury and hope he recovers well.)

Surprise forecast: 10 percent chance

It’s probably a bit higher – maybe 15-20 percent – but I went with 10 percent simply because 10 is the number Emil Forsberg wears on his back. Forsberg, as you may have heard, is the Red Bulls’ best player.

The Red Bulls won’t have the ball against the Crew. You won’t win the open xG battle. That’s okay. You just have to show a different level of quality than usual on a counterattack or a set piece. Forsberg is the guy with this quality.

If the Swede leaves, players like Lewis Morgan, Dante Vanzier and Elias Manoel can have big games behind them. If not, the crew will likely advance to the next round.

Surprise forecast: 45 percent chance

The Loons have “Upset Special” written all over them.

• XI set. Eric Ramsay finally found the players he wanted/needed in the summer and organized them into a neat 4-2-3-1 that gets the best out of the entire group.
• Strong striker. Kelvin Yeboah struck and he scored straight away. Seven goals in nine games and 711 minutes is a dream start, and he is actually in a bit of a cold spell, having not scored in his last three games. What I’m trying to say is that it’s due.
• Best away team in the Western Conference. Only LAFC matched its points tally.
• Game changer from the bench. If Yeboah, Robin Lod, Bongi Hlongwane and Joaquín Pereyra don’t make it, Sang-Bin Jeong, Tani Oluwaseyi, Teemu Pukki and Franco Fragapane come.

Meanwhile, Diego Luna is hot, but Chicho hasn’t scored in what feels like a lifetime, and Real Salt Lake may or may not have the playoff dog in them. Things could quickly get hairy for the three seeds.