Winter forecasts are fun to look at. Let’s compare two detailed winter forecasts from NOAA and AccuWeather.

There are often several factors that can give us clues about what winter might look like in general.

Both winter forecasts are based on a La Niña event this winter. Just because both forecasts have a similar key factor doesn’t mean the forecasts are exactly the same.

The forecasts are very similar, increasing the certainty that two very experienced weather organizations are predicting reasonably similar winter conditions. AccuWeather’s winter forecast is slightly warmer than the NOAA forecast for Michigan and the Great Lakes region. NOAA’s forecast is slightly wetter than AccuWeather’s.

Here are the two temperature forecasts.

AccuWeather’s temperature forecast below shows a much larger area of ​​warmer than normal conditions. In general, however, both forecasts assume that the winter will be mild east and south into Michigan. AccuWeather’s forecast tells us the extent of above-average temperatures, which are estimated to be one to two degrees warmer than normal.

A winter that is one to two degrees warmer than normal will still be cold in Michigan. To put it in perspective, last winter’s second warmest winter on record was about seven degrees warmer than normal.

Both forecasts are based on a La Niña-generated storm track. Tom Kines, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, says they feel a weak La Niña will shift the storm’s track north along the Pacific Northwest coast. He says a strong La Niña usually has a strong storm track toward California. As the storm moves further north toward Washington, storm systems will move further north, potentially moving across the Great Lakes. When a winter storm passes through Michigan, we have mild air a day or two before the storm. AccuWeather forecasters expect this weather scenario to bring occasional mild air to Michigan this winter.

Paul Pastelok was actually the AccuWeather meteorologist who made the winter forecast. Pastelok tells me that current global warming is factored into the winter forecast. Pastelok says, “We are more cautious about predicting colder than average areas of the country.”

It doesn’t look like a dry winter if the forecast from NOAA or AccuWeather is confirmed. NOAA has much greater confidence in above-average precipitation, but AccuWeather’s precipitation forecast also shows plenty of moisture.

Both precipitation forecasts show wet weather as storms reach the Pacific Northwest. NOAA is bringing the heavier precipitation back to the Great Lakes after these storms move across the Northern Plains. AccuWeather apparently expects Lower Michigan could have around normal rainfall amounts, but is located between two wetlands.

One nice thing that AccuWeather’s winter forecast tells us, unlike NOAA, is the snowfall forecast. Here, AccuWeather expects the lake-driven snow chill to be severe. They will bring more than average snowfall to northwestern Lower Michigan and the Upper Peninsula.

If we add the two predictions together, we get a slightly warmer winter than normal. With these two forecasts, it will not be warm enough to call it a warm winter.

It also looks like there will be numerous storm systems. We’ll need the waterproof boots, the snow shovel, and even the ice scraper many times this winter when we actually get into the storm track from the Pacific Northwest.

AccuWeather’s Paul Pastelok also believes Michigan’s winter could come early and end in a furious manner. He believes that if there isn’t much going on in the middle of winter, there could be a lull.

Regardless of the forecast, it’s Michigan. We will have winter. We will shake and shovel. It just depends on how much is freezing and shoveling.