Every week in the NBA is its own story – full of surprises, both positive and negative – and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe going forward. Maybe we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!

Don’t be surprised if… 76ers C Joel Embiid misses half of the season again

I’m sorry for starting on a negative note, but the situation already seems dire. Embiid has clear and chronic knee issues and the Philadelphia 76ers recently announced he will sit out the entire preseason to take care of his health. The team also made it clear that Embiid will not play in either end of the scheduled 14 consecutive games this season, eliminating nearly a fifth of his potential schedule. The 76ers want Embiid to be healthy heading into the playoffs, period. Previous examples of load management have not worked. Will this work? Who knows, but we have to be realistic in fantasy.

When it comes to production per game, Embiid has few competitors. The two-time NBA scoring champion improved to average 34.7 PPG last season, along with 11 RPG and by far a career-best 5.6 APG. He was one of only three players to average more than 60 ESPN fantasy points per game, but of course he only played in 39 games. ESPN Fantasy points leaders Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis missed a combined 37 games, an average of seven per player. Simply put, fantasy managers cannot treat Embiid like other elite (top 10) players in drafts, trades, etc.

Philadelphia signed exceptional rebounder Andre Drummond because it knew Embiid would be a modest — at best — regular-season participant, as if the six months before the postseason barely mattered. Well, they’re definitely important to us in fantasy! The 76ers, with Tyrese Maxey, maybe two-thirds of a Paul George season and plenty of veteran depth, can afford that patience. Fantasy managers who replace Embiid with available centers like Ivica Zubac and Dereck Lively II in daily formats and never know what to do in weekly leagues will be frustrated.

None of this means you shouldn’t draft Embiid, but I definitely wouldn’t go near him in the middle of Round 1. I would leave him out of the top 20 picks, especially in weekly formats, and that means I won’t get him, which is fine. Desire healthy players. It’s safe to assume that Embiid’s active roster spot plus someone like Zubac, Lively or Jakob Poeltl will remain productive enough because Embiid’s statistical jump is worth it. Secure. Perhaps. Maybe Embiid plays in 60 games? We crave clarity and we have little here, which tends to complicate decision-making.

Now the 76ers just need to make sure the rest of the team stays healthy enough to win more than 45 games. Can you stay healthy, Paul George?

Don’t be surprised if… Andre Drummond leads the league in rebounds

OK, maybe that’s a bit much, but Drummond remains a fit, motivated, rebounding monster who averaged 9 RPG on just 17.1 MPG for the Bulls last season. In his 10 starts for Nikola Vucevic, Drummond averaged 14.1 PPG and 17.9 RPG, along with 1.1 SPG and 1.8 BPG (that’s important too!), strongly resembling the guy Fantasy Manager loved the Pistons some time ago. Drummond is on the wrong side of 30, but he shows no signs of it as he eagerly gobbled up rebounds last season and this preseason.

Drummond will start at least 30 games this season, probably more. It can average over 25 MPG overall. Drummond isn’t much of an offensive option anymore, but he hits his field goal attempts and doesn’t get so far to the line that his nightmares there would hurt in fantasy. Would you bet against Drummond averaging 13.7 RPG like Kings star Domantas Sabonis did a season ago? You don’t have to be an Embiid investor to secure Drummond in the final rounds. There’s a valuable season ahead, and even if Embiid starts, there should be some value.

Don’t be surprised if…James Harden is averaging 30 PPG

Embiid’s former 76ers teammate is in the middle of the third round in ESPN’s average live drafts. Yeah, I just don’t think that’s remotely consistent with his statistical value. If Harden were to once again average 16.6 PPG and 8.5 RPG like he did last season when his Clippers buddies Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to average more than 46 PPG alongside him, then there are certainly better ones out there , younger point guards capable of greater things. Leonard won’t be playing any time soon due to his knee problems – look at Embiid playing in more games and I’ve already written my paltry expectations there – and George is now Embiid’s teammate (and with his own knee injury).

Harden probably isn’t too disappointed with the turn of events because he wants the use. He wants all usage. That’s not to say Harden doesn’t want to win basketball games, but he doesn’t seem to mind doing so on his own. Just look at what surrounds him in the first few weeks/months of the season. Zubac is a defender, hardly a goalscorer. Norman Powell can score, but that’s about it. Terance Mann should step in. Man, former Rockets lightning rod Kevin Porter Jr. could score 20 PPG on this team that has no frontcourt and might shoot as many threes as possible, barely defend and look like last season’s all-powerful Pacers.

Harden’s last season of ridiculous effort was his final season with the Rockets, when he averaged 34.3 PPG at 36.5 MPG, with fewer assists – because he didn’t make as many passes – but a wild 4.4 3- Point attempts per game. He did what he wanted and the main thing was to bring the ball up and fire from deep. Okay, he was 30 then and now 34. In the last few seasons playing alongside superstars, his efficiency declined and he seemed unmotivated to get to the free throw line, but Harden scored in each of the last two seasons over 38% from 3-point range as he played with a relatively strong cast of teammates.

That’s hardly the deal now. I don’t think Harden is too old or has slipped too much to achieve a top-five usage rate. He has to go to this club. Consider a motivated Harden as a potential top-10 fantasy option.

Don’t be surprised if…Stephon Castle wins rookie of the year

Four players have higher odds of winning this prestigious award via ESPN BET (Zach Edey, Reed Sheppard, Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr), and perhaps all of them are great out of the gate statistically, but Castle looked so mature in preseason action and ready, I think it’s worth taking advantage of him a little earlier in drafts. Are we really going to let Castle fade away because veteran Chris Paul, who has played in fewer than 60 games in each of the last two seasons and is likely a trade activist, is currently standing in the way?

Paul is a veteran distributor and future Hall of Famer who averaged 6.8 APG in 26.4 MPG for the Suns last season, but the Spurs still seem like an unlikely West contender, so why Paul or give PG Tre Jones so many minutes? Better yet, just give Castle the two-guard role (he’s 6-foot-2) and Devin Vassell (feet) is missing. Castle scored 17 points in 22 minutes against the Magic last week, got to the free throw line 10 times, hit a pair of threes, had four assists and we saw him defend at UConn. He doesn’t need much time to learn at the NBA level. He is ready now and deserves big moments.