Donald Trump’s poll numbers have improved, but the race against Kamala Harris in 2024 is still too close with two weeks to go.

The former president is now considered a slight favorite over Harris to win the November election for the first time in two major poll aggregators and forecasting models, with three recent, high-quality polls showing Trump ahead of Harris nationally.

The vice president’s national lead over Trump has also narrowed in the last week.

The battle between Harris and Trump in the seven key swing states that could decide who wins the election remains neck-and-neck, with the two either close to a tie or just ahead overall.

Harris’ clearest path to victory in November would be to win the three blue wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any surprise results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the Sun Belt swing states North Carolina and Georgia and flip Pennsylvania.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

National averages

Harris’ current average national lead over Trump is 1.8 points (48.2 percent to 46.4), 538, according to the poll aggregator and forecaster.

This is a decrease of 0.6 points from the average lead Harris had over Trump on October 15, when the election was still three weeks away.

And 538 announced Oct. 18 that it sees Trump as the favorite to win the Nov. 5 election against Harris for the first time since the presidential election forecast was released between those two candidates. The prediction site currently gives Trump a 53 percent chance of winning, but adds that the race is still considered a toss-up.

“It’s important to remember that a (53) in 100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58 in 100 chance for Harris – both are little better than a coin toss for the frontrunner,” G says . of 538. Elliott Morris wrote. “While Trump has undeniably gained ground in the last few weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back on top tomorrow.”

In the October 20 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s forecast model, Trump also became the favorite to win the election over Harris for the first time. The model says Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the presidency, while Harris has a 48 percent chance.

In the overall Decision Desk HQ/The Hill rankings, Harris still has a 1.2-point lead over Trump nationally (49 percent to 47.8), but that’s down 0.9 points from last week.

Pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar forecasting model, gives Harris a national average poll lead over Trump of 1.6 points (48.8 percent to 47.2 percent) in his latest update. Silver’s model also shows that Trump’s numbers improved by 1.1 points compared to last week.

On October 20, Silver posted a “laundry list” of reasons why Trump could win the race in November on his Silver Bulletin blog. The 24 proposals include the Electoral College vote favoring Republicans, voters’ perception that the economy is hurting Harris and Democrats’ loss of key support among black and other minority voters.

The RealClearPolitics national average has Harris ahead by 0.9 points (49.2 percent to 48.3 percent). As of October 15, Harris’ lead was 1.6 points.

Swing states

According to 538, Harris is currently at 0.3 point lead in Wisconsin, 0.2 point lead in Michigan and 0.3 point lead in Nevada, meaning all three battleground states are essentially tied.

Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 0.3 points, in North Carolina by 0.8 points, in Georgia by 1.5 points and in Arizona by 1.9 points.

Trump is on track to win the election with 281 Electoral College votes, in line with the current forecast of 538, barring any surprise results elsewhere.

Harris has silver by 0.6 points in the blue wall states of Michigan and Wisconsin and by 0.5 points in Nevada. Trump and Harris are at 48 percent in Pennsylvania.

For silver, Trump beats Harris on average in North Carolina (plus 1 point), Georgia (plus 1.3 points) and Arizona (plus 2 points). Trump improved his poll averages in all seven swing states compared to last week.

RealClearPolitics has Trump ahead of Harris in all seven swing states.

The former president is ahead in Arizona by 1.8 points, in Nevada by 0.7 points, in Michigan by 1.2, in Pennsylvania by 0.8 points, in North Carolina by 0.5, in Georgia by 1.8 points and in Wisconsin with 0.4 points.

Current survey

A TIPP Insights poll of 1,254 likely voters showed Trump with a 2-point lead over Harris, 49 percent to 47 percent. The poll was conducted Oct. 17-19 and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 points.

A nationwide Quantus Insights National Survey poll of 1,045 likely votes conducted Oct. 15-17 showed Harris ahead 49.4 percent to 48.6 percent. The results have a margin or error of 3 percentage points.

A Fox News national poll of 1,110 registered voters conducted Oct. 11-14 showed Trump with a 50 percent to 48 percent lead over Harris. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

And an Atlas Intel poll of 4,180 likely voters showed Trump with a 2-point lead in a head-to-head matchup (50 percent to 48). The poll was conducted October 12-17 and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.