Topline

Just 15 days before Election Day, early voting is taking place in almost every state across the country, as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied in polls – and even though there is no consensus yet as to who is ahead among early voters There are some positive signs for Democrats in the data.

Important facts

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Cons

You can’t draw any conclusions about who will win from early voting data, Tom Bonier, Democratic political strategist and senior adviser to TargetSmart, warned CBS. “Polls will tell us how people will vote, but not who will vote,” he said, adding that early voting data “won’t tell us who will win, but they are good breadcrumbs.”

Surprising fact

The Republican share of early voters in Pennsylvania has risen to 24% so far this year from 16% in 2020, according to TargetSmart data provided to CBS on Wednesday. In Pennsylvania, Democrats have always dominated postal voting.

tangent

More than 1.5 million voters have already cast early ballots in Georgia, breaking personal records on the first day of early voting on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. As of Thursday morning, 87,246 people had voted by absentee ballot and 1,476,468 people had voted in person, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office. Voting rights advocates have urged voters to cast their ballots in person amid a series of new GOP-backed rules in Georgia that they say could hamper the voting process, including requiring hand-counting of ballots and video surveillance at polls after polls close Polling stations during early voting. A judge struck down rules adopted Thursday by the Trump-aligned state elections board, but the Republican National Committee and the state Republican Party appealed the ruling. According to the State Board of Elections, North Carolina voters also broke the state’s record on the first day of early voting on Thursday, when 353,166 ballots were cast, despite fears that the devastation from Hurricane Helene would hinder access to the polls would. Thursday’s numbers beat the previous record set in 2020 by 1.3%.

Big number

46%. That’s the share of voters surveyed by Gallup in September who said they have already voted in the 2024 election or plan to do so early, including 46% of Democrats, 43% of independent voters and 31% of Republicans. The share of Democrats opting for early voting has increased slightly from 44% in 2016, while the share of independents has increased from 35% and Republican participation in early voting has fallen from 42%.

Important background

Trump and Harris enter Election Day in a dead heat. Polls show there is a virtual tie between the two, including in the seven swing states that are expected to decide the election. According to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, while Harris is ahead in Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, although neither candidate is ahead by more than 1.6 points in a battleground state.

What you should pay attention to

Trump and his allies are preparing to challenge the election results if he loses, which Trump says could only happen if Democrats cheat. Trump has also said he will only accept the results of the election if it is “fair and legal and a good election,” leaving open the possibility that he could plead wrongdoing if he loses. Republicans have already filed dozens of voting rights lawsuits in the 2023-2024 cycle to challenge voting protocols in battleground states, while Trump has asserted his legal troubles, Harris has replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, and any negative coverage of him in the race all amounts to election interference .

When is election day?

November 5th.

How do early voting totals this year compare to previous elections?

The early voting total pales in comparison to 2020 numbers, when the pandemic drove up turnout in mail-in voting, but is slightly higher than early voting in the 2022 midterm elections, which is also typical as voter turnout in presidential elections historically higher is years.

How many people voted in swing states?

In the seven swing states most likely to decide the election results, 2.4 million Democrats have voted, while nearly 2 million Republicans and nearly 400,000 independent voters have already cast ballots, according to TargetSmart.

Which states have started early voting via absentee or absentee ballots?

All states except Washington, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Hawaii.

Does every state offer in-person early voting?

No. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire offer early absentee voting only with a legitimate reason.

Is absentee voting offered in every state?

Yes, but nine states – Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia – require an acceptable reason for absentee voting.

Further reading

Here’s how Trump and his allies are navigating potential election loss challenges (Forbes)

Swing state polls for the 2024 election: Trump leads in Arizona and Georgia, Harris leads in North Carolina (Update) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Trump leads in Fox News poll – Harris leads in two other polls (Forbes)