Topline

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seemingly dead heat with just over two weeks to go until the election. That’s according to a number of polls, most of which show Harris with a narrow national lead — even though the key swing states are virtually tied.

Important facts

Who is likely to win the election: Harris or Trump?

According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, Trump is favored to win 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Harris. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a narrow lead, but recently wrote that he has “never seen an election where the forecast was near 50/50 for longer.”

Big number

0.9. That’s how many points Harris is ahead of Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics poll average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 1.7-point lead, and Nate Silver sees Harris 1.6 points higher in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

According to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Harris narrowly leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump has an edge in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. That means Trump would win the election if state-level polls turned out to be exactly right — but all seven swing states are in the single digits and most have margins of less than one percentage point.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, that lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% supported Harris, compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said , they weren’t sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous peaks for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll . The survey had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Polls leading up to the debate showed that Harris’s rise in poll numbers appeared to have plateaued, including a Sept. 3-5 NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters that showed Harris leading 49% to 48 % ahead of Trump, compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters across all demographic groups viewed Harris’ performance in the September 10 debate positively. Overall, 67% said she did well, compared to 40% who said the same goes for Trump. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, Harris was up 52% ​​to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters , essentially unchanged from her six-point lead among likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late August and early August – even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate last week.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of defying calls from his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to formally nominate her in a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’ surge in the polls coincides with a surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while Republican enthusiasm is at 71%. stagnates. according to a Monmouth University survey released Aug. 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris won the debate – but she largely didn’t change voters’ minds (Forbes)

Trump’s lead over Biden and Harris widened after RNC poll finds HarrisX/Forbes (Forbes)

Here’s how Kamala Harris performs against Trump in polls – while Biden drops out and supports Harris (Forbes)

Harris’ lead over Trump remains unchanged after DNC, first poll results (Forbes)