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    • Abortion and recreational marijuana could happen in Florida
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    Abortion and recreational marijuana could happen in Florida

    Caradoc Wyn Posted on

    The fate of abortion in Florida will depend on voter turnout

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    A new poll suggests Florida voters are poised to pass two of the most contentious issues on the November ballot: approval of recreational marijuana and abortion rights.

    The poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL), released early Monday, shows 66% support for Amendment 3 on adult cannabis use and at least 60% support for Amendment 4 on abortion access.

    Proposed changes require at least 60% approval statewide to be included in the Florida Constitution. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus about 3½ points.

    “After years of polling on medical and recreational marijuana in Florida, it is clear that the majority is in favor of legalization,” PORL faculty director and political science professor Michael Binder said in a statement. “As we approach Election Day, despite intense campaigning, we are seeing support for this amendment and are on track to exceed the 60% supermajority required for passage.”

    In fact, Binder added, support has “increased two points since the last national PORL poll in July of this year, in which 64% of likely voters voted yes.” ”

    On the other hand, support for the abortion amendment has “just reached the threshold of a supermajority,” Binder said, with another 32% opposed and 8% undecided.

    Amendment 4 would repeal Florida’s current law, which bans most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy, and return the state to where it was for 49 years, when Roe v 24 weeks.

    “As campaigning against the amendment has increased, support for abortion protections has declined among 69% of likely voters in July,” Binder said. “Now that we’ve barely reached the 60% needed, it looks like the fate of abortion in Florida will depend on voter turnout on Election Day.”

    The latest poll results come as Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration has launched a sweeping lawsuit against both measures. For example, he used taxpayer money to fund public service announcements by state agencies attacking both amendments. That has prompted several legal moves to block it, most of which have so far failed.

    Additionally, his State Department released a report last week alleging there was widespread fraud in the petition process that allowed the abortion measure to get on the ballot. The petition group denies any wrongdoing. The report prompted an anti-abortion rights group to file a lawsuit seeking to have the results of the vote on Amendment 4 thrown out, even if it passes.

    Previous reporting: Federal judge: DeSantis can’t threaten Florida television stations with airing pro-abortion rights ads

    In other polls:

    Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 10 in Florida

    ∎ Former President Donald Trump is now 10 percentage points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the White House in Florida, the poll shows.

    Of those polled, 53% of respondents said they would vote for Trump, 43% said they would vote for Harris, 2% said they would vote for another candidate and 2% were undecided.

    No clear winner in the race for the US Senate

    ∎ No one received a majority in the race for the US Senate. Republican incumbent Rick Scott received 49% support in the poll, while Democratic challenger and former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell received 46%. Additionally, 1% said they would vote for someone else and 4% were undecided.

    In both presidential and Senate races, “undecided respondents were then asked in a follow-up question who they would lean towards if they had to choose between the candidates.” In addition, responses were collected from those who declined to participate poll, but volunteered who they would vote for before hanging up the phone. These ‘lickers’ and ‘bleeders’ are included,” the survey press release states.

    More on the Senate race: Two hurricanes in Florida did not slow down the race between Scott, Mucarsel and Powell in the US Senate

    Here’s why: “Hurricane Milton, which made landfall right in the middle of our field period for this survey, posed a significant challenge. Therefore, we made some methodological decisions to increase our coverage and ensure a representative sample,” said Binder.

    “Previous research has shown us that people who blurt out their choice for a candidate and then hang up on them are more likely to vote, and most of these ‘blunderers’ are Trump supporters. This may explain why his lead increased to 10 points from 7 in our last poll in July.”

    School Board Change Seems Doomed to Failure

    ∎ Amendment 1, which would allow partisan elections for county school boards, appears doomed to fail, according to the poll.

    Of those surveyed, 41% were in favor, 30% were against and another 30% said they didn’t know. “The large number of people who said they didn’t know could be due in part to the confusing legal language, especially when reading it on the phone, rather than the fact that people are genuinely undecided on the issue.” said Binder.

    If passed, the candidates’ political parties would be listed by their names on the ballot, just as they were before voters decided to make them nonpartisan in 1998.

    Read more: Quick guide to all 6 amendments to the Florida vote. Here’s what your yes or no vote will do

    How the survey was conducted

    According to the press release, the poll consisted of a random sample of 977 likely Florida voters in Florida’s 10 major media markets, was conducted Oct. 7-18, and was based on the September 2024 Florida voter file, with a mix of landlines and landlines Cell phone numbers were used.

    “A voter was included in the sampling frame if they voted in any of the 2016, 2018, 2020, or 2022 general elections or the 2020, 2022, or 2024 primary elections. … Respondents who said they “probably” or “definitely” would not vote in the upcoming election or who refused to answer were eliminated.”

    This story contains previously reported information. Jim Rosica, news director for the Tallahassee Democrat, can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on X:@JimRosicaFL.

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    Caradoc Wyn
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