North Korea not only supplies Moscow with weapons but also sends military personnel to Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on October 17 in Brussels after a meeting with European leaders and NATO defense ministers. He said Pyongyang was preparing to send up to 10,000 troops.

On October 8, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said in parliament that North Korea could support the Russian war in Ukraine by sending troops.

Zelensky has repeatedly warned against an alliance between North Korea and Russia and said ties between Ukraine and its allies need to be strengthened to prevent a “big war.”

North Korean ammunition and troops

Sabrina Singh, deputy spokeswoman for the US Department of Defense, indicated in July that there were no signs that North Korean troops would be sent to Ukraine. But in 2023, the Military Intelligence Service of Ukraine (HUR) reported that a North Korean contingent had arrived in the occupied territories of the country.

Andriy Kovalenko of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council reported in early October that North Korean military personnel were monitoring ammunition supplied to Russia in Russian-occupied parts of the Donetsk region. He added that they accompanied deliveries and monitored the Russian army’s use of ammunition.

According to Ukrainian media, there were even North Korean victims. More than 20 military personnel, including six officers from North Korea, were reportedly killed in a Ukrainian missile attack near Donetsk on October 3.

An anonymous HUR representative recently told Ukrainian media that the Russian army had acquired a “special Buryat battalion” that included North Koreans. The Buryats are a Mongolian ethnic group native to southeastern Siberia. The HUR official said 18 North Korean soldiers had left their positions in Bryansk and Kursk, both Russian regions bordering Ukraine.

However, there is no confirmed information about the number of North Korean troops in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine.

No confirmation from Moscow of North Korean involvement

Russia has not yet confirmed that North Korea is participating in the war against Ukraine. With regard to Russia and North Korea, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that there is “truly strategic deep cooperation in all areas, including security,” referring to a defense pact signed in June 2024 between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which provides for mutual military assistance.

Pro-Kremlin bloggers have reported on ammunition deliveries from North Korea and Iran to the Russian army and posted photos from the front. Some even criticized the poor quality of the weapons.

DW was unable to find any evidence on Russian social media networks that North Korean soldiers had been sent to Russia or Russian-occupied Ukraine. Posts claiming to provide evidence of North Korean troops’ involvement in the war in Ukraine were dubious at best. An appeal to Kim Jong Un posted in a Russian-language Telegram chat was written in Korean and signed with the name of the commander of the Korean People’s Army’s First Motorized Rifle Brigade. In it, the military man allegedly asks not to be sent to Kursk so as not to fight “against NATO,” adding: “We are afraid, it is terrible.” In August, Ukrainian troops advanced into this Russian region.

Fyodor Tertitsky, a South Korea-based North Korea analyst, said the appeal was fake. He said that aside from the fact that a military man would not admit to his superiors that he was afraid, it contained revealing errors. For example, the South Korean spelling was used and the correct form was not used to address the North Korean leader. Although he was described as “respected,” he explained, “according to the rules he must also be referred to as a beloved leader” and if he did not do so he would be brought to justice.

Mutual temporary benefits for Russia and North Korea

Andrei Lankov, a professor of history and international relations at Kookmin University in the South Korean capital Seoul, said it was “quite plausible” that North Korean troops would be sent to take part in Russia’s war against Ukraine. He told DW that it made sense for Putin to reinforce the Russian army with North Koreans because it would allow him to avoid another mobilization campaign in Russia.

“If you look at it from a Russian perspective, Putin is waging a war that is generally popular in Russia, but only on the condition that the majority of the population is kept out of the fighting and not ‘disturbed.’ “, he explained.

Lankov, who is originally from Russia but has worked as an academic in South Korea for 30 years, said there are fewer and fewer men willing to risk their lives, even for the generous financial benefits that come with membership the university with the army offered. He said what the Russian army needs most now are infantry units.

He explained that North Korea primarily wanted money in return. “At the moment, a private in the Russian military receives $2,000 (approximately 1,840 euros) a month plus an employment bonus that can be up to $20,000. If North Korea receives half that amount for every soldier it provides, then Pyongyang will be very happy.

The second reason for Pyongyang’s willingness to contribute troops is Russia’s offer to foot part of the bill in technology, suggesting that North Korea has gotten a raw deal on this point. “Money alone is not enough,” Lankov said. “Some will need to be provided in the form of the advanced technology that the North wants but has not been able to get. Normally Russia would never agree to provide this kind of technology to a country as unstable as the North, but they have no choice.”

The final reason for North Korea’s desire to have troops on the front line in Ukraine is the capabilities and knowledge it will provide in a real-world scenario, Lankov suggested.

“This is a modern conflict between two advanced military powers over a prolonged period of time,” he said. “The world has not seen such a conflict in 80 years and North Korea wants to gain experience in waging such a war.”

While the loan of potentially thousands of North Korean troops suggests a new level of military cooperation between the two allies, Lankov expected the exchange to be brief.

“It will take relations to a new level, but only for a certain period of time,” he said. “As soon as the hostilities in Ukraine are over, everything will go back to the way it was before and everything will continue as usual. These two countries are very different and largely incompatible, so North Korea will produce very little of what Russia wants.”

In June 2024, South Korean broadcaster TV Chosun quoted a South Korean government source and reported that North Korean troops were being deployed to support the Russian army. It was proposed to transfer three or four engineer brigades from North Korea to Russia. Andrei Gubin of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies wrote in 2020 that these types of troops are extremely effective due to their strict discipline and high quality of work. In his study, he pointed out that the Korean People’s Army was structured to be capable of “tiered defense.”

North Korea has already sent troops to support other armies

North Korea has sent troops abroad before. Angola, for example, welcomed around 3,000 military “advisers” in the 1970s and 1980s. These troops were tasked with training local troops, but also fought against South African forces.

North Korean troops also sent troops to Uganda, Chad and Mozambique and trained Southwest African Liberation Army guerrillas to wage a long-running insurgency against the South African government until the end of apartheid.

In general, North Korea tends to send instructors, Tertitsky said, explaining that North Korean soldiers have rarely taken part in military operations outside their country. Another exception he highlighted was the use of pilots to support the North Vietnamese during the Vietnam War.

However, he explained that the South Korean defense minister’s statement gave credibility to the scenario that North Korean troops could be used to participate in Russia’s war against Ukraine and that he was forced to take it “seriously.”

This article was originally published in Russian.