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The best Jalen Milroe prop bets and player prop picks for Alabama vs. Tennessee
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The best Jalen Milroe prop bets and player prop picks for Alabama vs. Tennessee

Alabama’s highly anticipated test against its long-time rival Tennessee is just around the corner.

The implications for the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff are monumental, adding even more layers to an already exciting matchup.

Player prop bets are a great way to enjoy the game because you’re hoping for specific outcomes on every snap. Below are my three favorite props for Alabama vs. Tennessee.

Top Alabama vs. Tennessee player props for Saturday

Jalen Milroe 2+ touchdowns

Opportunities: +245 at DraftKings ($10 bet pays $24.50)

Tide QB Jalen Milroe must score twice with the ball in his hands for this prop to be cashed. Pass points do not count in touchdown bets.

Two touchdowns in a game is a remarkable achievement for most players. For Milroe, this is the norm.

Milroe has scored two touchdowns in five of six games this season. The exception came against Vanderbilt when the redshirt junior only reached the end zone once.

Thanks to his blistering speed and ability to find weak spots in defense, Milroe is a scoring threat every time he touches the ball. At 1.80 m tall and weighing 100 kg, it is difficult to get him to the ground when he lowers his shoulder.

However, it won’t be easy against Tennessee’s defense. The Volunteers are allowing just 11 points and 79 rushing yards per game. Both numbers are in the top five nationwide.

Ole Miss and Texas are the only SEC defenses that have given up fewer rushing touchdowns. Because of this, Milroe’s 2+ touchdowns prop has a +225 odds.

While Tennessee’s defensive stats are staggering, the Vols don’t have many mobile QBs to contend with. The few they have played don’t match Milroe’s big-play abilities.

Judge Haynes under 26.5 rushing yards

Opportunities: -114 at FanDuel ($10 bet pays $8.77)

Even though the odds suggest a 53.3 percent chance of RB Richter Haynes rushing for less than 26.5 yards, taking such a low yardage prop is risky. I usually avoid taking the under on yardage props that have a realistic chance of going over on a big play.

I’m making an exception with this prediction because Milroe is the only player who runs the ball effectively for Alabama.

In three SEC matchups, the Crimson Tide have given up to a running back just 12 times per game. Haynes recorded 35 yards against Georgia, followed by 23 yards and 26 yards against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, respectively.

Considering how strong Tennessee is against the run, I expect Alabama to shut down the run if the lanes aren’t open to start the game. Since Haynes and RB Jam Miller split the runs somewhat evenly, a high passing percentage or creating rushes for Milroe means even fewer handoffs for Haynes.

Dylan Sampson Over 99.5 rushing yards

Opportunities: -115 at Caesars ($10 bet pays $8.70)

RB Dylan Sampson leads a Tennessee rushing attack that has the seventh-most yards per game in the FBS (246). Sampson’s 699 yards rank ninth and only Boise State RB and Heisman odds leader Ashton Jeanty have more rushing touchdowns.

Alabama fared well on the run against Western Kentucky and Georgia. Aside from those games, the Crimson Tide gave up at least 132 yards in every game.

Unlike Alabama, which splits carries between Haynes and Miller, Sampson gets the majority of carries for Tennessee. QB Nico Iamaleava is still making progress early in his career, forcing the Volunteers to hit the rock with Sampson when things aren’t going well in the air.

Sampson is averaging 116 yards per game and has surpassed his 99.5 yards rushing average in all but one matchup this season.

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