It seems like fall has just arrived, but winter isn’t that far away.

Meteorological winter begins in 44 days on December 1st.

NOAA released its winter weather outlook this week, and many Alabamians are always wondering: Will there be snow this year?

Although you can never say “never,” according to the forecast, the odds are not in our favor.

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a good chance of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation — including frozen precipitation — for the meteorological winter, which runs from December to late February.

The Temperature Outlook predicts a 50 to 60 percent chance that southern Alabama will experience warmer than average temperatures during the winter months.

Central and most of northern Alabama have slightly lower but still good chances of a warmer winter – 40 to 50 percent, according to the forecast. (The temperature outlook is at the top of this post.)

However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be cold days.

Added to this are the precipitation prospects, which also don’t look particularly good for snow lovers.

The outlook predicts a 40 to 50 percent chance of below-average precipitation for southern Alabama and a 33 to 40 percent chance for central and some northern Alabama. Only the northernmost tier of the state has the same chance of above- or below-average precipitation, according to the forecast.

That doesn’t mean snow isn’t guaranteed, even though it’s already fairly rare in Alabama. “The outlook does not forecast seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance,” NOAA said.

The reason for this warmer and drier winter forecast? There is a strong focus on the formation of La Nina.

According to NOAA, “La Nina conditions are expected to develop later in the fall and typically result in a more northerly storm track during the winter months, making the southern tier of the country warmer and drier.”

Every La Nina is different, but here is a look at some of the most common winter weather influences:

However, La Nina is not yet active. The Climate Prediction Center expects it to occur from now through November and into the first quarter of 2025. A “La Nina watch” is currently in effect.

What about the rest of the United States this winter?

“NOAA forecasts wetter than average conditions across the northern portion of the continental U.S. this winter, particularly in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region, as well as northern and western Alaska. Meanwhile, drier than average conditions are expected from the Four Corners region in the Southwest to the Southeast, the Gulf Coast and the lower Mid-Atlantic states.”

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook monthly. The next update is scheduled for November 21st.