A poll shows Donald Trump has narrowed Kamala Harris’ lead, well within the margin of error, in a key battleground in the presidential race.

Trump and Harris are vying tirelessly for Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes – more than in any other swing state – because they can determine the outcome of the election.

In 2016, the former president narrowly won Pennsylvania against Hillary Clinton, but in 2020, President Joe Biden defeated the state. In Pennsylvania, this year’s neck-and-neck race is expected to be decided by a few thousand votes, and both major party candidates have repeatedly campaigned for voters there.

A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll of 800 likely Pennsylvania voters released Thursday morning showed Harris with a one percentage point lead over Trump, 46 percent to 45 percent. The poll, conducted between Oct. 2 and Oct. 9, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.97 percentage points, putting the vice president’s lead well within that margin. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1 percent support, while 6 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

The poll shows Harris’ lead has shrunk by one percentage point since the last similar poll, conducted between Sept. 11 and Sept. 19, which showed Harris had 48 percent support to Trump’s 46 percent, while her overall support fell by 2 percentage points has fallen. That UMass Lowell/YouGov poll of 800 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Newsweek emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns on Thursday seeking comment.

The October poll, conducted just three weeks before Election Day, showed Harris leading among younger voters ages 18 to 44 with 53 percent to Trump’s 36 percent. Trump appeals more to voters aged 45 to 64, 52 percent, Harris 39 percent. Harris is overwhelmingly ahead among black voters, with 80 percent support to Trump’s 15 percent, while Trump has a narrower lead among white voters, 51 percent to Harris’ 41 percent.

Most polls in Pennsylvania show a narrow gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates, with peaks fluctuating within the margin of error, making the state a true tie.

A current one New York Times/Philadelphia Investigators/A Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in the Keystone State found Harris leading Trump by three percentage points.

The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared to 47 percent for Trump. However, Harris’ lead is within the margin of error of plus/minus 3.8 percentage points. Additionally, the survey found that 3 percent of respondents did not know who they supported or refused to answer.

Meanwhile, a survey by Emerson College/The hill A poll of 1,000 likely voters in Pennsylvania showed Trump leading Harris by one percentage point, with 49 percent of respondents supporting him and 48 percent supporting Harris. The poll, conducted between October 5 and 8, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Harris’ clearest path to victory next month would be to win the three battleground blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any surprise results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 votes in the Electoral College would be to win the swing states North Carolina and Georgia while ousting Pennsylvania.

Aggregate polls, updated daily with new data, show an extremely close race in the state. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump leads Harris (47.4 percent) by 0.5 percent (47.9 percent). On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight shows Harris leading by the same percentage, 48 percent, to Trump’s 47.5 percent.

Other aggregates, such as B. those of The hill And The New York Timesshow Harris with a lead of 0.3 percent or 1 percentage point.