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    • Who will win the presidential election? What the Harris Polls Say to Trump
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    Who will win the presidential election? What the Harris Polls Say to Trump

    Idris Bevan Posted on

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    The countdown to Election Day is just 21 days away. The campaigns are in full swing as the race changes depending on polls and ratings over the past seven weeks.

    Presidential candidates, their vice presidential candidates and even their spouses have taken a divide-and-conquer approach to campaigns across the country.

    The political climate of the last few months has made history and headlines leading up to this race:

    So the big question becomes, “Who will be the 47th President of the United States?”

    Here’s what the polls, odds and a historian have said over the last seven weeks – and how they’ve changed – as we approach Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

    The story continues in the photo gallery

    Who is ahead in the polls and is favored by the odds?

    • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.5%, ahead of Trump at 46.1%. Compared to last week, Harris was 48% over Trump 47.3%, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 43.9% six weeks ago weeks or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% seven weeks ago.
    • 270towin shows Harris leading Trump by 2.5% in national polls, compared to last week’s 2.8% lead. over Trump, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump 3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris 0, 9% over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump six weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump seven weeks ago.
    • realclearpolling shows the betting odds in favor of Harris at +1.7 compared to a tie between Harris and Trump last weekcompared to Harris with a spread of +1.8 against Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris with a spread of +2.3 against Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris with a spread of +2.0 against Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump six weeks ago and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump seven weeks ago.
    • Polymarket, a The crypto trading platform expresses the odds of the betting public, with Trump at a 56.3% chance versus Harris at a 43.1% chancecompared to Trump last week at 52.8% versus Harris at 46.7%, compared to Harris favored by 2% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris versus Trump at 3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris versus Trump by 2% four weeks ago, versus Harris over Trump by 1% five weeks ago, or versus Trump over Harris by 4% six weeks ago, or versus Harris by 1% over Trump seven weeks ago.

    Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers refer to Tuesday, October 15, 2024, 9 a.m

    What is true? What’s wrong? Sign up for USA TODAY’s Checking the Facts newsletter to get all the answers.

    What did Allan Lichtman predict for the 2024 presidential election?

    Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished history professor at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

    The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump. He says he uses 13 “keys” to make his selection, ranging from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.

    Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election in the last half century, except for the 2000 election, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

    How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

    According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

    Survey track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different audiences can often achieve higher error rates.

    According to Pew Research, confidence in public opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

    In these two general elections, many surveys underestimated the attractiveness of Republican Donald Trump.

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    Idris Bevan
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