The Blues begin a new adventure Tuesday afternoon in Seattle, opening the 2024-2025 season in a faraway destination. But the goal is clear and easy to see: stay within touching distance of the postseason chase and find a path back to a spot in the Stanley Cup Tournament.

MoneyPuck gives the Blues a 27 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason. Analyst Neil Paine is more optimistic, giving the Blues a 42 percent chance of making it to the postseason. But the Blues ranked 19th overall and 10th in the Western Conference in Paine’s season-eve power rankings. So the Blues are underdogs and that’s a good place to be. After failing to qualify for the playoffs in the last two seasons, I like that the Blues are overlooked and are able to emerge as a surprise.

This is what I like about the blues:

1. I like seeing how the soft rebuild project is progressing. It looks good. The Blues had a losing record two seasons ago, but improved to an encouraging 92 points in the 2023-2024 season. The warming trend continued after Drew Bannister replaced Craig Berube behind the bench, but the Blues couldn’t overcome the Western Conference contenders’ powerful logjam. The Blues were a good team last season with a record of 43-33-6. But the West had too many teams and the Blues couldn’t do enough to advance. But their 92 points in the overall standings were 11 more than the year before.

2. I like what Doug Armstrong has done with the squad. And I liked his idiosyncratic move. The GM refreshed the talent pool by adding depth, speed and youth. Not only does this give the Blues more quality in the lineup – with more reserves – but the Blues also play faster, which is more in line with coach Drew Bannister’s preferred style of play.

Depending on the specific starting lineup, the Blues could have up to six new players in the lineup on any given night – and all of them were brought in by Armstrong. The four new strikers are Dylan Holloway, Alexander Texier, Mathew Joseph and Radek Facksay. And with Philip Broberg and Ryan Suter there are two new defenders.

The NHL was rocked by Armstrong’s bold summer raid on Edmonton to lure Broberg and Holloway away from the Oilers by submitting offer papers. When Edmonton refused to honor the offer, the army’s successful gamble paid off. Armstrong disturbed the peace in the NHL by adding two former first-round draft picks who are young, talented and provide a lot of lift for St. Louis.

The Blues now have a larger talent pool, and that doesn’t even take into account the many up-and-coming talents approaching St. Louis. The Blues already have more lineup options to choose from – and the number of players will continue to grow.

3. I like the Blues’ chances of having a more respectable defense this season. Honestly, Torey Krug’s season-ending ankle surgery actually makes the Blues stronger. I don’t think the Blues can compete with teams that can field an elite group of four best defenders, but the Blues should be stronger at preventing goals. The big and fast Broberg is a great addition, and Justin Faulk should return to top form after a miserable 2023-2024 season with chronic ankle injuries. The Blues have strengthened their defense after the coaching change last season and I expect that trend to continue this season.

4. I like knowing coach Drew Bannister has settled in. Bannister had a full offseason and training camp to prepare his team, and he used the time to get to know individual players better. Bannister’s relationship-building efforts should give the Blues a stronger foundation of trust and unity.

The Blues responded positively to Berube’s dismissal on December 12. I didn’t like that Berube was fired; It seemed like a harsh way to treat the only coach in Blues history to lead the franchise to the Stanley Cup. But the initial feelings are irrelevant now, simply because we have seen the Blues improve under Bannister.

After finishing 23rd among 30 NHL teams in points percentage (.482) under Berube, the Blues have been 13th in the NHL in points percentage (.602) since Bannister on December 14th December took over with his first game. The power play was more successful, the team’s hit rate increased slightly (all strengths) and the players worked harder.

The most impressive aspect of the turnaround was the Blues’ ability to limit opponents’ goals. With Berube as coach last season, the Blues ranked 28th in the NHL in goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five and were 24th in goals allowed per 60 minutes at all levels. But once Bannister took over, the Blues began playing smarter away from the puck (among other positives) and improved to 11th in goals prevented at five-on-five and 12th when defending goals at all strengths.

5. I like the charitable goaltending of Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer. The tandem was outstanding last season, combining for the league’s sixth-best save percentage across all strengths and performing well above the league average when it came to blocking shots from the danger zone. Binnington

Last season, the Blues conceded 248 goals, which was the 13th best in the NHL. But based on possession and shooting stats, the Blues should have scored 279 goals, which is 28th. The two goaltenders kept the Blues in limbo in postseason contention.

Binnington was in his best form since his magical rookie season, which ended with a Stanley Cup parade in downtown St. Louis. Last season, Binnington ranked fifth among regular NHL goaltenders in goals saved above average and was second best in preventing high-danger goals.

The only thing I’m wondering about is the regression. Binnington and Hofer were so great last season that it makes one wonder if the Blues can count on both to perform at such a high level for the second year in a row. Will Binner deliver an encore? For the Blues to have a clear shot at making the playoffs, the goaltending performance will have to be special for the second season in a row.

THERE ARE QUESTIONS

* Can newcomers Broberg and Holloway live up to their talent level? Broberg is particularly exciting because of his size and speed.

* If Pavel Buchnevich stays in the center, can he give his best? We know Buchnevich is more effective on the wing, but the Blues need him to strengthen their center. Is this the best use of his talent? I think it’s worth a try. But Buchnevich at center also tells us the Blues are falling short in a critical position.

* Speaking of center: Can Robert Thomas post his first 100-point season? He hit 86 last season and should have more support on his line this time around.

* Can Jordan Kyou consistently perform at a high level from the start of the season to the finish line? That’s always the question with Kyrou. After the coaching change, he perked up and committed to being more conscientious on neutral ice and on defense. Hopefully this is a sign of new maturity.

* Does Brayden Schenn still have a lot left in the tank? The Blues will need more points from him if possible. And as a two-way center, Schenn needs to be more reliable in the defensive zone. And that might be his biggest problem. Last season, Schenn averaged 3.77 goals per 60 minutes of ice time (even strength) – the worst rate of any Blues skater who saw regular playing time. With this value of 3.77, Schenn placed in the bottom 25 of all regular NHL skaters.

* Defenseman Colton Parayko stepped up his game last season and it was good to see. But can he reach an even higher level? I may be in the minority here, but I’m not a fan of Parayko teaming up with Nick Leddy. Last season, the Blues were outscored 83-65 with the pair playing at all strengths on the ice. But Parayko-Leddy had a brutal expected goal share of 37.3 percent at all strengths in tandem. And the expected goal percentage (42.8%) in five-on-five play was pretty terrible. Leddy is a problem.

* Will a healthy Justin Fauk prove to be a true defender again? He is making good progress with the repaired ankle.

* Can Jake Neighbors repeat or surpass his 27-goal breakthrough from last season?

* Can Zack Bolduc build on the promise of his first late-season NHL experience?

I’m looking forward to the season. The incredibly confident Armstrong likes his squad. He believes this can be a playoff team. Across North America, hockey pundits aren’t so rosy.

Here’s ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski:

“I think it’s in the Blues’ best interest at this point to have the best possible draft lottery odds, but GM Doug Armstrong’s teams have a stubborn way of always competing with each other,” he wrote. “It’s kind of in the DNA of the franchise that there has only been one season since 2008-09 with a point average of less than .500.

“The Blues are in purgatory because they have great players in their prime – Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich – but not enough of them; a mediocre blue line with five players well into their 30s, four of them with trade protection and one of them (Torey Krug) out for the season; and in Jordan Binnington, a goalkeeper good enough to prevent a team from ever becoming as bad as the Blues should be at this point.

“The successful bid papers for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway are an indication that Armstrong knows this team needs to get younger and, particularly in the latter case, faster. But those opportunities are few and far between in the offseason. The most direct way to get there is the draft. I fear the Blues will be just good enough not to maximize their chances there.”

(Back to me…Bernie.)

The Blues should be better this time around, but they still lack the overall momentum to make a run at the postseason tournament. To make the playoffs, they need some other Western Conference contenders to flop or underperform, and I don’t know if we can count on that. Towards the end of the regular season, I think the Blues will be close… but still on the outside for the third year in a row. But whether they make the playoffs or not, the Blues are well prepared for the future.

Thanks for reading…

–Bernie

Inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspectives on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Statistics used in my hockey columns and videos come from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, PuckIQ and Money Puck, and Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.

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