Waxahachie, Texas
CNN
—

On a sunny October afternoon, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz posed for photos with supporters next to his campaign bus in downtown Waxahachie — a historic square with quaint shops and a storied, almost mythical courthouse.

The city is the seat of conservative Ellis County, just south of Dallas, and named after one of the leaders who helped Texas declare independence from Mexico in 1836. Cruz had just given a fiery speech at an old playhouse across the street, the Texas Theater, where he mobilized the crowd with red-meat rhetoric and jokes that appealed to the state’s unique pride.

“We were founded by a bunch of wild people,” he said on stage in jeans and boots. “A group of fourth graders who started drilling holes in the ground and one by one became the richest men in the world. This is Texas! Texas is: Give me an open field and a horse and a gun, and I can conquer the world.”

Cruz is considered one of the most conservative senators and his bid for a third term is expected to go smoothly in a place that has regularly elected Republicans in statewide contests over the past 30 years. But for the second straight day, Cruz must fight to keep his seat against a well-financed Democrat.

Rep. Colin Allred is a former NFL linebacker and civil rights attorney who ousted a Republican for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives six years ago. Now he’s challenging Cruz, portraying the incumbent senator as an unsympathetic politician who cares more about podcasting than legislation.

Recent polls suggest a tightening race reminiscent of when Democrat Beto O’Rourke lost to Cruz by less than three percentage points in 2018 in a race that captured the nation’s attention. National Democratic groups are once again investing heavily in television advertising, raising the all-too-familiar hope that they could cause a major stir, although many remain skeptical.

Both men describe themselves as serious lawmakers who can reach across the aisle, while simultaneously describing each other as radical candidates out of touch with Texas voters. The television ad wars further highlight the stark contrast between two emerging but competing visions of the Texas electorate — a long-standing conservative force or an evolving landscape with increasingly Democratic strongholds.

The latter is a reality that casts a shadow over Cruz’s campaign – especially as he urges voters on his 53-city tour to vote for Republicans, whether on the ballot or not.

“This race comes down to one very simple thing,” he said in his speech, “keeping Texas in Texas.”

The topics: economy, border and transgender politics

In the final weeks before the election, both candidates are marching across the state to make their final message clear. They will also duele in a televised debate on Tuesday hosted by CNN affiliate WFAA.

Add to this the enormous amount of money spent on advertising in the state’s rich and expensive media markets. According to data from AdImpact, the two campaigns and their allied groups have spent nearly $129 million, including future ad buys leading up to Election Day, making it one of the eight most expensive Senate races this cycle. Allred and his support groups have spent nearly two-thirds of that amount, while Cruz and his supporters have spent the other third.

Cruz focused his attacks on Allred on three main issues: the economy, the U.S. southern border and transgender politics. He has released several TV ads highlighting Allred’s vote against a GOP-led House bill last year that would have barred transgender athletes from women’s and girls’ sports in publicly funded schools. The bill, which passed on a party-line vote, was not passed by the Senate.

During the election campaign, Cruz made the topic an important part of his campaign speech. “We live in a world where one of the two major parties currently cannot figure out what a woman is,” he said. “It wasn’t a trick question before.”

Allred was the first Democrat this election cycle to release an ad responding to criticism of transgender issues, a key line of attack for Republicans in the presidential and other congressional races.

“Ted Cruz is lying again, but now he’s lying about our children. I am a father. I’m a Christian too,” Allred says in a new ad. “And my faith has taught me that all children are children of God. Let me be clear: I don’t want boys playing girls’ sports or any of that ridiculous stuff Ted Cruz says.”

CNN has asked Allred’s campaign to elaborate on his position but has not received a response.

Cruz also criticizes Allred for changing his stance on the southern border. When Allred ran for Congress in 2018, he called the border wall “racist” and said just two years ago that he did not view the border as a “top” issue for many Texas voters, although he said he wanted to see comprehensive immigration reform .

Now he’s making the border a focus of his ads, promising to solve the problem and attacking Cruz for his opposition to bipartisan immigration legislation earlier this year. Allred also joined Republicans this year in condemning the Biden administration’s “open borders policy” in a Republican Party-led resolution.

On the campaign trail, where the border is a winning issue for Republicans, Cruz has repeatedly criticized Allred for opposing the same border wall that the representative criticized in one of his television ads years ago, and has criticized Allred’s seriousness about the border question asked.

In an interview with CNN, Allred defended his position, admitting that he and his party “took too long to respond to the increasing wave of migration.”

“But we can also say that the answer can’t be, ‘Let’s be cruel to people and think this will help.’ This is not real border security,” he said.

Meanwhile, Allred hits Cruz hard on abortion, arguing the senator is “responsible” for overturning Roe v. Wade said he helped bring justices and judges to federal courts, leading to the Supreme Court’s landmark decision in 2022.

“With Ted Cruz, we’re getting more government and less freedom, and Texas women are paying the price,” says the narrator in one of Allred’s ads.

While Cruz hailed the Supreme Court ruling as a major victory, he has recently remained quiet about his stance on Texas abortion laws, which do not provide exceptions for rape or incest. Asked by CNN why he didn’t mention abortion in his speech after a rally in Allen, Cruz argued that it wasn’t a top concern for Texas voters and changed the subject to jobs and the border. Speaking to reporters the following day, he said it was up to state leaders to decide.

Both candidates tout their bipartisanship, but Allred relies heavily on support from high-profile Republicans like former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, who leads a group called Republicans for Allred.

Allred brings up her endorsements often and mentions her name more often than Vice President Kamala Harris’s. When asked by CNN about that strategy, Allred said he doesn’t think Texas voters view his race and the presidential race in the same light.

“I think there are Texans out there who are true conservatives who believe in the rule of law, who believe in the Constitution, who believe we shouldn’t try to overturn elections, who think they don’t. “I don’t want to be embarrassed by your senator anymore,” he said.

Cruz finds Cheney’s support ridiculous. “I’ve known Liz Cheney for a long time and she has completely lost her mind,” he told CNN when asked about her support.

Allred’s efforts to solidify his brand as a moderate are a key difference from O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign. And while O’Rourke crisscrossed the state with large, energetic rallies, Allred has spent much of the race to hold smaller, more intimate events. He spent a lot of money on television advertising early on to increase his profile. In these final weeks, Allred is beginning to hold larger events and urge people to vote.

O’Rourke also refrained from making negative comments against Cruz, but Allred didn’t hold back his punches. Several of its ads show videos of Cruz at the airport on his infamous trip to Cancun during Texas’ deadly 2021 freeze that brought the state to a standstill for days. When Cruz returned, he called the trip a mistake, but has joked about it ever since.

At a campaign event last week with the “Funky East Dallas Democrats,” Allred railed against Cruz’s intentions as a serious lawmaker, mocked his thrice-weekly podcast, partially blamed him for the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection, and bashed him on the issue Abortion.

But in his closing line, Allred urged the crowd to remember Cruz’s Cancun suitcase as they watch the results on Election Day.

“Imagine Cruz taking that same little rolling bag and walking right out of the Capitol,” he said.

CNN’s David Wright contributed to this report.