In the BCS era, a loss meant a season with national title aspirations was mostly over. In the era of the four-team College Football Playoff, no team has ever made it onto the field with two losses.

But now that the playoff roster has grown to 12 players, two losses still won’t make up for what the most successful teams did in the first half of the season.

What’s often overlooked is the reward for winning a game like Oregon vs. Ohio State in a top-three showdown on Saturday or Texas vs. Oklahoma this weekend and at Michigan earlier this season.

The Ducks and Horns are halfway through the season with big wins and no losses. And what winning quality games offers is the luxury of knowing that one bad night can’t dramatically alter the course of a season in which a team has already accomplished a lot.

For teams like Oregon and Texas to miss the playoffs now — and include Penn State after its comeback win Saturday at USC — would be a complete collapse. Top-ranked Texas should have wiggle room no matter what happens this week against No. 5 Georgia (which could prove useful considering the regular season ends at rival Texas A&M).

Go deeper

No. 1 Texas hasn’t peaked yet. What happens when it happens?

After a big win, there’s a good chance a coach will be asked: What does this mean for your team?? This is a good question because it can go in many different directions.

I’ve never heard a coach respond by saying, “Well, we can lose a game now (probably two) and all our dreams are still alive.” However, that is the reality of the new era.

There is enormous value in this.

This season – especially Week 6 – has shown us that disaster is imminent for almost everyone. What you gain in a week full of big games like the ones we saw on Saturday is the peace of mind that the season won’t be derailed if disaster becomes an unwelcome guest in the coming weeks.

Each week, Bubble Watch examines who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle ahead of the first 12 College Football Playoffs. It is a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The top five ranked conference champions automatically receive a spot in the playoffs. Here you can find the bracket projections of Austin Mock’s model.

ACC

Clemson continues its dominance after its nightmare at Georgia earlier in the season. The way the Tigers and Miami are playing, it’s hard to imagine either team not getting on the field barring a collapse.

Pitt held its own against Cal at home and remains just outside the bracket, finishing in the top 20 in both polls this week.

Big Ten

Ohio State’s loss to Oregon wasn’t enough to get out of the “definitely in” category, but it reduces the margin for error. The Buckeyes travel to Penn State on November 2nd and will likely be favorites against Indiana and Michigan, but the matchups are anything but a gimmick.

Indiana hosts Nebraska this week and the Huskers would represent IU’s best win of the season. With a convincing win, the Hoosiers will be a real factor in the playoff discussion. If they move on against Washington and Michigan State, a subsequent win over Michigan would make them a clear top-10 team.

USC has completely dropped out of the conversation after its third narrow loss. After beating LSU in the season opener, this team could easily be 6-0. Instead, the score is 3-3 (and LSU has won five straight since then).

Penn State’s margin for error looks huge after a comeback road win at USC. The Nittany Lions host Ohio State, but first have two weeks to prepare for Wisconsin.

Big 12

The Big 12 appears to be more of a league that can receive multiple offers each week. Iowa State, once a holdout for conference victory, is still in pole position in this wide-open race, but BYU appears to be the leading contender after being picked at No. 13. Now ranked 13th nationally, the Cougars are 6-0. Every team appears capable of securing an at-large bid if they don’t win the Big 12. Kansas State and Texas Tech hang on, while KSU survives a thriller in Boulder and eliminates Colorado from this week’s Bubble Watch.

And Arizona State, the league’s last team, defeated preseason favorite Utah and appears to be the Power 4’s most improved team.

SEC

Ole Miss’ second loss in three weeks puts the Rebels on the outside of the field. Bama, Georgia and Tennessee all appear to be vulnerable. Alabama needed late-game drama to survive South Carolina’s surprise bid, and Georgia was far from dominant against a Mississippi State team that wasn’t very competitive against FBS competition.

When the season ends today, Tennessee is likely still in the fold, but its struggles along the offensive line and lack of consistent explosiveness in the passing game have raised a lot of skepticism about how good the Vols actually are as the schedule becomes increasingly difficult .

LSU and Texas A&M are at the top of the standings, but are still just outside the actual rankings. Both have plenty of opportunities to prove they can maintain the SEC title when the league is decided in late November.

Group of 5

Boise State was already in the driver’s seat. But Oregon’s win over Ohio State made its solid record even better considering it lost by three points to the Ducks in Eugene earlier this season. The Broncos might need it. Army and Navy are in danger of remaining undefeated and could meet in the AAC title game. This week marked the first time the teams appeared in the poll at the same time since 1960. Both still face Notre Dame.

But if Boise ends the season at 12-1 with an MWC title, a win over Wazzu, maybe two wins over UNLV and its only road loss at Oregon, it would be hard to deny the Broncos a spot in the field.

Go deeper

What do Army and Navy’s historic starts mean for the AAC Championship? CFP?

Other

I told you not to exclude Notre Dame from the playoffs after the loss to Northern Illinois. Since then, the Irish have been rock solid, defeating Purdue, Miami (Ohio) and Stanford, and picking up a solid win over a Louisville team that plays in the ACC’s second division. As more and more teams above them lose, the Irish continue to creep further into the group.

They reached “definitely in” this week, and our Austin Mock predicted the Irish have a 64 percent chance of making the field.

The strength of their schedule is evident everywhere. Georgia Tech has been consistently in the polls. Florida State and USC were eliminated. But now both the army and navy are ranked. It’s mostly balanced. The Irish are no doubt at 11-1 and still have a good chance of making the field if they stumble down the stretch.

(Photo of Oregon teammates Roger Saleapaga (#83) and Jeffrey Bassa: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)