A simple look at the score or an examination of fantasy football categories doesn’t always reveal a player’s full performance. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers that are worth looking into.

Yes… The numbers lie.

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s four touchdown catches are a lie

Harrison Jr. ranks 59th in receptions and 38th in red zone targets, but is tied for the second-most touchdown catches in the league. He has fewer balls than Michael Wilson and has been incredibly reliant on touchdowns, with 35% of his fantasy points coming from touchdowns. The rookie has addressed any initial concerns about his speed, but his role in an Arizona offense that has regressed this season has been shaky. Harrison Jr. is one of only two receivers to see go routes or fades on over 30% of his targets.

Harrison Jr.’s 42.2% air yards percentage looks good, but comes with a catchable target rate of 60%, which ranks 74th in the league. He ranks among the leaders in unrealized air yards while recording the second-most contested catches. Among pass catchers with at least 25 targets, Harrison Jr. ranks 39th in target rate (5.9%). MHJ doesn’t see any layup targets and hasn’t caught more than five balls in a game so far.

Harrison Jr. has averaged 8.4 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) when not facing the worst pass defense in the league (the Rams allow 9.0 YPA!), which would make him the WR46 of the year. Additionally, MHJ will likely be shadowed by Jaire Alexander (who returned to practice on Wednesday) this week, and after that he won’t face a defense that is currently outside the top 10 in WR Fantasy Ratings until Week 13!

Kyler Murray is averaging just 194.4 passing yards this season, and Arizona’s offense has been a disaster outside of the early drives; Murray has posted 10.0 YPA on attempts 1-10 this season with a 6:0 TD:INT ratio (and his only rushing score), but after scripted plays (attempts), that number drops to 5, 3 YPA with a TD:INT ratio of 1:2 11+).

Harrison Jr. will make plays, but the early touchdowns (and a matchup against the Rams) have obscured a daunting role in a disappointing offense. Trey McBride hasn’t broken out yet this year (more on that later), and Wilson is on the rise. Harrison Jr. will establish himself as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver, but his expectations will need to be lowered (he’s closer to Brian Thomas Jr. than a healthy Malik Nabers).

Garrett Wilson’s big game last week was a lie

Wilson easily had his best game of the season last week, recording 13 catches for 101 yards and a score. But it took 23 goals, the fifth-most since statistics began in 1992. Wilson’s route chart was absolutely terrifying on Sunday, and the Jets faced a Vikings defense that had by far the highest pass rate and the most passing yards allowed in the league. It was Wilson’s first weekly ranking among the top 10 WRs since his rookie season.

New York scored the same number of points in five games as they did last season, when Zach Wilson had a better YPA than Aaron Rodgers currently has. Garrett Wilson’s average depth of target (8.1 yards) ranks 43rd in the league, and 70% of his targets are behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards. This season he is in first place with 56 goals, but only 22 of them have been scored. His yards per target (5.2) are the sixth-worst in the league.

While it’s unclear how a head coaching change will fix the offense, at least Nate Hackett has been relieved of his duties as game manager. The chemistry between Rodgers and Wilson will certainly improve as well, but Wilson could also soon be competing with Davante Adams for targets.

Wilson gets a stingy Buffalo pass defense this week, followed by shadow struggles with Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Gonzalez. Like Harrison Jr., Wilson has a disappointing role in an underperforming offense, so he’s unlikely to be worth his high ADP despite last week’s misleading performance.

D’Andre Swift’s two touchdowns are a lie

The window to buy cheap in a trade has closed after RB finished in the top three in each of the last two weeks, but Swift’s season-long fantasy production remains misleading due to a slow start and unfortunate TD production. Swift was tackled three times at the one-yard line last week (and later failed to score on that drive), also having a touchdown run negated by an illegal shift penalty. Swift had seven carries inside the 10 last week but saw Roschon Johnson steal two short scores.

Swift’s effort has been the same over the past two weeks, but his performance has skyrocketed despite the unfortunate scoring. An extremely favorable schedule helped, but Swift looked good and more comfortable in a new Chicago offense. Most importantly, Caleb Williams has shown real growth.

Swift rotated with Johnson at the goal line, but Khalil Herbert was placed on ice. Swift is the RB13 in expected fantasy points, just ahead of Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. Additionally, the Bears have the second-easiest projected RB schedule over the next five games.

Swift was also stopped the second most times in the league last year (six), but his luck should decline at the goal line. There are more touchdowns to come, so Swift is considered a buying high in fantasy trades.

Trey McBride’s TE10 ranking is a lie

McBride left one game and missed another due to a concussion. He has posted a target share above 29% in three of four games this season and has the best tight end schedule remaining. He was classified open about three times as often as Sam LaPorta while running a similar number of routes. McBride dropped a potential touchdown in the end zone last week and leads all tight ends in first-read target rate (25.9%).

McBride has a better separation rate and a higher target rate (13.3% vs. 5.9%) than Marvin Harrison Jr., who runs a lot of go and fade routes. McBride will benefit from Harrison’s limited route role, and last season as a sophomore he led all tight ends in first downs per route run.

Rashee Rice-less Travis Kelce and the up-and-coming Brock Bowers are at odds, but McBride has them as the fantasy team’s top tight end.