While there were plenty of close games over the weekend, few of them had results that could potentially help Nebraska in its postseason path. For the first time in a few weeks there were no unexpected or major surprises. Let’s take a look at the games highlighted in last week’s list of games to watch.

34 – #1 Texas (6-0)
3 – #18 (tie) Oklahoma (4-2)
There was no boom for these Sooners. The Texas Longhorns played Texas crazy in the Cotton Bowl. OU should fall a few spots in the polls, probably very close to Nebraska. Nebraska will likely overtake the Sooners with a win over Indiana.

31 – #2 Ohio State (5-1)
32 – #3 Oregon (6-0)
And another giant goes down! Nebraska faces the Buckeyes in two weeks and they will be in bad spirits. Oregon now controls its own destiny, both in the Big Ten and nationally. This hurts the strength of Nebraska’s schedule somewhat, as the Buckeyes won’t be undefeated when they play in two weeks.

33 – #4 Penn State (6-0)
30 – (#26) USC (3-3)
Over time
In fact, the men of Troy did not “fight” any further! They rolled over in extra time. This, in turn, hurts Nebraska’s good schedule for the Huskers’ trip to USC in November.

25 – South Carolina (3-3)
27 – #7 Alabama (5-1)
The Gamecocks almost did the unthinkable, but ‘Bama was able to save the day with a late interception. It’s likely to do some damage to the tide in the polls. This game has no obvious impact on the Huskers.

26 – #9 Ole Miss (5-2)
29 – #13 LSU (5-1)
It’s hard to beat the Tigers in Baton Rouge. LSU will likely stay at or near the top ten, and Ole Miss will fall a few spots, so they will essentially swap places in the polls. Nebraska will need to win its next two games – Indiana and Ohio State – to get past those teams if they keep winning, but both still have tough games ahead of them.

28 – #11 Iowa State (6-0)
16 – West Virginia (3-3) The Cyclones remain undefeated. Nebraska would benefit from Big 12 teams eliminating each other, but Iowa State refuses to follow that script.

19 – Arizona (3-3)
41 – #14 BYU (6-0)
Never trust a wildcat to take down a cougar. BYU is still undefeated. Like the Cyclones, BYU refuses to lose, which gives them a lead over Nebraska in the rankings.

19 – #16 Utah (4-2)
27 – Arizona State (5-1)
The Sun Devils did it. Utah was picked to win the Big 12 in the preseason and Arizona State was picked last, but it appears they are swapping places. An injured Cam Rising for the Utes didn’t look the same and hurt the Utes’ offense. The loss is expected to drop Utah several spots, probably just above Nebraska.

31 – #18 (tie) Kansas State (5-1)
28 – Colorado (4-2)
A late Buffs drive failed due to a long 4th down pass. This hurts Nebraska slightly in two ways: 1) A Colorado win would have made Nebraska’s victory over them look even more impressive; and 2) Kansas State will continue to be above Nebraska in the polls.

15 – Cal (3-3)
17 – #22 Pitt (6-0)
The Golden Bears decided they would rather turn around than “roll on.” They kept it close, but Pitt is still undefeated. It’s hard for AP voters to gauge how good the Panthers actually are since they have yet to play a ranked opponent, but as long as they remain undefeated, they’ll likely stay just ahead of Nebraska. Pitt has a bye in Week 8 before hosting Syracuse in a Thursday night game to start Week 9. Syracuse gets some votes in the AP poll because they only have one loss, so they’ll likely be ranked just outside the top 25 when they play. It should be a good game.

Games of NebraskaUTEP’s other opponents (0-6) was defeated by Western Kentucky (6-1), 17 to 44, on Thursday night.
Northern Iowa (2-4) lost to South Dakota (5-1), 17-42.
Illinois (5-1) shot over Purdue (1-5) in overtime, 50-49.
Wisconsin (4-2) throttled Rutgers (4-2), 42-7.
#18(Draw) Indiana (6-0) Bye
UCLA (1-5) lost to Minnesota (4-3) on a late touchdown 17-21.
Iowa (4-2) handed Washington (4-3) a 40-16 loss.

Of all these games, Iowa’s win will slightly improve Nebraska’s schedule, while the rest should have little impact.

Group of 5 teams to watchOf the non-Power 4 conferences, only 3 undefeated teams remain: ~Freedom (5-0) defeated Florida International in overtime (10/8) on Tuesday night. The Flames’ next game is October 23 against Kennesaw State.
~marine (5-0) had a bye. Next they welcome Charlotte.
~army (6-0) Smoked UAB, 44-10. Army hosts East Carolina next.
28 – #17 Boise State (4-1)
7 – Hawaii (2-3)

What should was the best G5 game of the week, but it definitely wasn’t:
7 – Carolina Coast (4-2)
39 – James Madison (5-1)

The worst-case scenario for Nebraska’s playoff chances would be that two or more of the G5 teams are undefeated and ranked ahead of Nebraska, especially if Boise State continues to win and secure the automatic bid to become the fifth-seeded conference champion. From the perspective of Nebraska’s playoff prospects, it doesn’t matter which team in the G5 conferences gets the automatic bid, but it is very important that there is not a second G5 team that has moved up in the rankings above Nebraska. Army plays Navy at the end of the regular season, and both play Notre Dame, so they are unlikely to go undefeated. However, Notre Dame will also be competing for an at-large bid, so it would be to their advantage if they end up beating an otherwise undefeated Army and/or Navy. The ideal situation for Nebraska would be for ALL of these G5 teams to suffer at least one more loss, so an upset against Notre Dame would be even more beneficial, while Notre Dame wins would seem less significant. Neither James Madison nor Liberty has the strong schedule to broaden their appeal. UNLV, Sam Houston, MemphisAnd North Texas currently only one defeat. It would be better for Nebraska’s chances if everyone lost at least one more time.

Playoff predictions by tier
All Power 4 conference teams with fewer than two losses are arranged at the bottom of the ranks to illustrate where they stand in the pecking order for playoff invitations. The G5 teams that are still undefeated are also listed.

Tier 1 teams are the top-ranked and undefeated teams that can likely lose two more games and still have a general invitation to the playoffs.

Tier 2 teams are the ones who can afford to lose another game and would still likely make the playoffs. These are mostly undefeated teams that were not originally ranked in the top 5, as well as those with a loss that were ranked very high at the start of the season.

Tier 3 teams are the ones who would likely make the playoffs if they won the rest of their games but can’t afford any more losses. There are still 11 teams left in the Power 4 conferences that have suffered 1 loss AND have not started the season at a high level. Nebraska is in that group. Notre Dame, Washington State and G5 teams with fewer than two losses are also included in their own grouping.

SEC
Stage 1 = Texas (6-0)
Stage 2 = Alabama (5-1), Georgia (5-1), Tennessee (5-1)
Stage 3 = LSU (5-1), Texas A&M (5-1), Missouri (5-1)

Big Ten
Stage 1 =Oregon (5-0)
Stage 2 = Ohio State (5-1), Penn State (6-0), Indiana (6-0)
Stage 3 = Illinois (5-1), Nebraska (5-1)

Big 12
Stage 1 = (none)
Stage 2 = Iowa State (6-0), BYU (6-0)
Stage 3 = Arizona State (5-1), Kansas State (5-1), Texas Tech (5-1)

Independents and G5
Stage 1 = (none)
Stage 2 = Notre Dame (5-1)
Stage 3 = Boise State (5-1), Army (6-0), Navy (5-0), Liberty (5-0), Boise State (5-1), Washington State (5-1), UNLV (5- 1), James Madison (5-1), Sam Houston (5-1), Memphis (5-1), North Texas (5-1)

The list of tiers will be updated every week as the season progresses. A Tier 4 will be added once the number of undefeated and one-loss teams has decreased to the point where it is necessary, and the number of two-loss teams has decreased to the point where it is manageable. Here This is what the forecasts looked like last week.

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