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What the Royals and Phillies need for 2025
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What the Royals and Phillies need for 2025

Two of the four division series have come to an end, capping an exciting week of playoff baseball. The New York Yankees defeated the Kansas City Royals three games to one, while the New York Mets shocked the Philadelphia Phillies by the same margin. On the one hand, we can wonder if we will see another subway series.

On the other hand, the only option now for the defeated is to figure out what went wrong and how to fix the problem. Free agency doesn’t start until November, but that doesn’t mean they can’t look to the depth of their organization to find answers to their questions. Questions like, “Why did our bats get so cold?” or “How did our pitching break down so badly?”

Even though there are only two losers in the second round of the MLB playoffs so far, it’s the perfect time for them to take advantage of their early exit and put their team under the microscope. Here are two prospects from each losing team that could help them in 2025.

Phillies

1) RHP Andrew Painter (#32 overall prospect)

2024: Did Not Pitch (Tommy John Surgery)

2022 (Three teams): 6-2; 103 2/3 IP, 1.56 ERA, 67 hits on 25 BB (.887 WHIP), 5 HR, 155 K, .181 OBA

The Phillies’ pitching staff, particularly their bullpen, was terrible during the division series. The good news is that Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez can play absolutely good baseball in October. The bad news is that the rest of the staff has completely collapsed.

Across 11 pitchers, the Phillies had a 5.82 earned run average and an ugly WHIP of 1.588. The team had a ratio of nearly five walks per nine innings, but the most disastrous number was the seven home runs they gave up in 35.2 innings.

In March, MLB writers called the Phillies the best projected bullpen in the league. They were far from that in the division series: Matt Strahm had an ERA of 18 and Jeff Hoffman had an ERA of 40.5. How do they fix this mess?

This is not an easy answer, but Andrew Painter is the best way to approach this problem.

We’ve already discussed Painter in our NLDS preview article. He’s had Tommy John surgery and hasn’t pitched in two years. However, even after a long time, his numbers before his injury were too good to ignore.

It bears repeating that Painter had a 1.56 ERA, 0.887 WHIP, and 14.5 strikeout rate in nine innings in 2022. He didn’t give up many walks and kept his home run rate under 0.5.

There is no telling how he will perform when he returns in 2025 due to the difficulty of recovering from full-force Tommy John injuries. However, after this performance from the pitching staff, Painter’s performance will be crucial heading into the 2025 season. It’s no longer just about rehabilitation and building arm strength, they now need it to perform.

Again, don’t expect him to be on the Opening Day roster. The question is whether he’ll start in the bullpen sometime next year. In the last article we talked about Taijuan Walker potentially being out if Painter makes an appearance. This latest workforce collapse puts everyone at risk of being laid off.

2) 2B/3B Otto Kemp (#28 organizational perspective)

2024 (Four Teams): .285/.392/.881; 24 doubles; 9 groups of three; 16 home runs; 66 RBIs; 52BB to 112K; 20 SB

Aside from a comeback in the second game in front of their home crowd, the Phillies’ lineup was patchy and inconsistent. Behind Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper were Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh. In fact, JT Realmuto failed to score a single goal in four games.

The team’s slash line was an uncharacteristic .186/.295/.598 in the division series, a far cry from their overall line of .257/.325/.750. Yes, they hit home runs and scored with runners on second and third, but they struck out almost twice as often as they scored.

In fact, they even scored more on combined walks than they totaled on base. That’s atypical for a team that once boasted the best offense and record in baseball. Is there anyone who can help the team lose its clout?

The Phillies’ best option right now is second baseman Otto Kemp.

There’s very little on Kemp considering he’s a minor prospect for the Phillies as a 25-year-old. But when you look at his numbers, he is the most MLB-ready on the field.

Over the last three years in the organization, his numbers have gotten better with each level jump. He set career highs in nearly every major statistical category, including triples with nine. He also nearly matched his stolen base count from last year.

Kemp has more gap power than raw power, which could be a good thing. For a team that failed to hit .200 in the postseason, his ability to get an extra-base hit would give the team more opportunities to score. Combine that with the fact that he has more hits than strikeouts and can post a walk rate above 10 percent, and he becomes a cheap and fast candidate for next year.

However, Kemp is limited to playing second and third base. The only other spots he has played are first, shortstop and right field. Good luck permanently removing someone from their spot. Kemp is best suited to a utility player role, but his bat is valuable.

Royals

1) BY Tyler Gentry (#15 Organizational Perspective)

2024 (AAA): .251/.338/.760; 24 doubles; 1 triple; 16 home runs; 59 RBIs; 53BB to 149K; 8 SB

You have to give the Royals all the credit: a year after losing 100 games, they had the honor of being a playoff team. Bobby Witt Jr. had an MVP season and his team led the league in batting with the fewest strikeouts.

However, in the AL Division Series, the team had an uninspiring .237/.278/.596 slash line and struck out 34 times. That’s a warning sign when you compare that to the fact that they only had seven walks in the entire series.

Additionally, the team only had six extra-base hits in the entire series, two of which were home runs. The cast needs some discipline and pop to get back into serious conversation.

While Tyler Gentry isn’t the ideal solution, he could help the team with its slugging problem.

The Royals’ farm system is very weak and has been in the bottom five for almost two years. There are no easy solutions or answers within the system that scream “absolutely promote”. Gentry is far from it, but it’s an impressive temporary energy solution.

Gentry has a nice mix of gap and raw power and leans more gap-heavy. He hit 20 doubles each year in his final three seasons, but also hit more than 15 home runs each year during the same period.

There is a glaring problem. Gentry’s strikeout rate has increased from around 25% in 2022 to nearly 33% in 2024. Likewise, his walk rate has also dropped. He’s gotten to the point where he’s striking out 50% more often than he’s getting a hit, which isn’t ideal for a team that’s had trouble keeping track.

The 2020 third-rounder made his debut this year but has only had five plate appearances. We certainly expect more next year, but if recent trends are any indication, it won’t be an easy transition. Ryals fans should be happy to see him translate his spacing and raw power success to the big league level.

2) LHP Noah Cameron (#12 organizational prospect)

2024 (two teams): 7-6; 128.2 IP; 3.08 ERA; 120 hits and 36 BB (1.21 WHIP); 12 hours (0.9 hours/9); 149K (11.5K/9); .243OBA

The starting signal was the story of the Royals’ season. Although they didn’t strike out many players, their walk rate was just above the big league average and their WHIP remained consistent at 1.25. They led the league in the fewest number of home runs given up with 146.

There was a clear problem with the pitching in the division series. The team had a walk rate of about eight per nine innings. Additionally, they gave up nearly one hit per inning and increased their WHIP to a dismal 1.571. Whether it was the Yankees’ advanced plate discipline or control issues, there were serious concerns. That’s not possible during a division series, especially when you’re playing a good team.

Left-hander Noah Cameron is the next best answer to their control and location issues.

When it comes to playing teams with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, both of whom have advanced eyesight, control and tracking are crucial. Although Cameron is not a top ace, he gives the team these two important impulses.

Cameron has maintained his strikeout rate above the average of nine per nine innings since being drafted. Additionally, his walk rate has continued to decline, almost sitting at under three per nine innings. He can place the ball and create a touch when it matters most.

The downside is that he doesn’t miss bats as often and has a .243 opponent batting average while giving up twelve home runs in 2024. Luckily, he was able to keep his damage to a minimum with his high strikeout rate. He’s no Paul Skenes or Nolan Ryan, but he’s primed for a middle reliever or setup role in 2025.

With Cameron playing in Triple-A and playing his best in his career, he has a good chance of making the Opening Day roster out of spring training. It might be smart for the Royals to convert this starter into a setup man who will give you quality performances game after game. With his four-pitch arsenal, including a high-level changeup, he could be a very important addition to the bullpen at the end of the game.

Main image credit: Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

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