By next weekend, the box office will have suffered an unfortunate decline. There’s no need to revisit the truly dismal first half of 2024, when theaters were almost desperate for modest hits, but the point is that the industry really doesn’t need any more setbacks. Since “Joker: Folie a Deux” unfortunately exploded and there is no hope of recovery, the first half of October is on life support. With that in mind, Paramount’s “Smile 2” can’t come soon enough as the horror sequel looks to give the box office a much-needed boost.

Director Parker Finn’s follow-up to 2022’s surprise hit “Smile” is currently aiming for a debut between $25 million and $35 million when it hits theaters next weekend, according to Box Office Theory. Even in the lower price segment, it would be higher than the original, which opened at the end of September 2022 with $22.6 million. However, “Smile” soon became a huge success, grossing $217 million worldwide and showing great success despite strong word of mouth. This was the key to turning Finn’s original concept into a true genre blockbuster. Therefore, the opening weekend will only tell a small part of the story when it comes to the sequel.

Still, this will be exactly what the industry needs. By the time this movie opens on the 18th, Joker will be as good as dead, The Wild Robot will likely fizzle out, and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will be all but done with its admittedly impressive theatrical run. However, all of this works to Paramount and Finn’s benefit as there will be far less opposition than previously expected. Michael Keaton’s comedy “Goodrich”, Cath Blanchett’s acclaimed “Rumours” and Disney’s “Hocus Pocus” re-release are unlikely to be able to assert themselves as direct competition. The path to dominance is clear.

“Smile 2” focuses on global pop sensation Skye Riley (Naomi Scott), who is about to embark on a new world tour when she experiences increasingly horrific and inexplicable events. Overwhelmed by the escalating horrors and pressures of fame, she is forced to confront her dark past before her life spirals out of control. In addition to Scott, Lukas Gage (“Road House”), Rosemarie DeWitt (“The Boys”), Peter Jacobson (“Fear the Walking Dead”) and Kyle Gallner play his role from the first film. In addition to his work as a director, Finn also wrote the script.

At least from the start everything looks good. The success of the first “Smile” was due in part to the fact that the production budget was only $17 million. Paramount originally planned to sell the film directly to Paramount+, but wisely opted for a theatrical release once what was in it was revealed. The company also signed a first-look contract with Parker Finn, with “Smile 2” being the first order. The hope here is that Paramount has once again been smart with the budget. Yes, the sequel is probably more expensive, but let’s hope the studio keeps the cost under $40 million.

The question is to what extent the competition will reduce ticket sales for “Smile 2” in the following weeks. Venom: The Last Dance is just around the corner and audiences will be hungry for a blockbuster given what happened with Joker 2. As far as horror goes, “Terrifier 3” is surprisingly poised to reach the top of the charts on its opening weekend. But can this last for several weeks? Or will it be the die-hards on the first weekend and then take a steep decline after that? Reviews could be crucial for “Smile 2,” more than for many other horror films. If word of mouth is good again, it should be in good shape. What if critics are far more gentle and the audience agrees? It could be more difficult to follow a similar path to his predecessor. At least in the initial stages, it will help fill many vacant seats in theaters across the country.

“Smile 2” will be in theaters on October 18, 2024.