Democratic statewide candidates have the edge over GOP candidates

A new Emerson College/The Hill poll in key swing states found a tight presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 47% support Harris. In Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, 49% support Trump and 48% support Harris. In Michigan and Wisconsin, 49% support both candidates. In Nevada, 48% support Harris, 47% support Trump.

Since the last round of Emerson/The Hill swing state polls three weeks ago, the race has shifted slightly: Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina, gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and her support has increased not improved Michigan and Nevada. Trump lost one point in Georgia and Nevada, gained one point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and failed to move in Arizona and Wisconsin.

“Vice President Harris is doing better than President Biden with Asian voters and young voters, but is doing worse than Biden’s 2020 support among independents and older voters,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Trump has held steady at 49% in Emerson polls in Wisconsin for several months, raising questions about whether he has reached a ceiling there. With just four weeks to go, the race is still too close to call key swing states, all within the margin of error.”

“Voters in union households approve of Harris by 10 percentage points in Michigan (54% to 44%) and 26 points in Wisconsin (62% to 36%),” Kimball added. “In Pennsylvania, they prefer Trump 53% to 43%. Non-union households lean toward Trump in Michigan (50% to 48%) and Wisconsin (52% to 46%), but Harris is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, 49% to 48%.

Gender difference on the ballot paper

In general, female voters tend to support Harris while male voters support Trump, with the only exception being Arizona, where Trump leads among both men and women.

• AZ: Men are at 49% to 47% for Trump and women are at 50% to 47% for Trump.
• GA: Men break 56% to 42% for Trump and women break 54% to 44% for Harris.
• MI: Men break 55% to 43% for Trump and women break 54% to 44% for Harris.
• NC: Men break 55% to 42% for Trump and women break 52% to 45% for Harris.
• NV: Men break 52% to 43% for Trump and women break 53% to 43% for Harris.
• PA: Men break 56% to 42% for Trump and women break 54% to 43% for Harris.
• WI: Men break 54% to 45% for Trump and women break 53% to 45% for Harris.

Advantages

The poll measured the favorability of Harris, Trump and former President Barack Obama.

• Harris’ favorability is 52% in Georgia, 51% in Michigan and Wisconsin, 50% in North Carolina and Nevada, and 48% in Pennsylvania and Arizona.
• Trump’s approval rating is 52% in North Carolina, 50% in Pennsylvania, 49% in Arizona and Wisconsin, 48% in Georgia and Michigan, and 45% in Nevada
• Obama’s approval rating is 54% in Arizona, 55% in Pennsylvania, 56% in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin and 57% in Michigan

Nationwide elections

In statewide elections, the Democratic candidate maintains a lead over the Republican in swing states.

• In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 50% to 43%.
  • Since last month, Gallego’s support has increased by two points, while Lake’s support has remained at 43%.
• In Michigan, 49% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin, while 44% support Republican Mike Rogers.
  • Since last month, Slotkin and Rogers’ support has increased by two points.
• In Nevada, 50% support incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen, while 42% support Republican Sam Brown.
  • Since September, Rosen has gained two points while Brown has gained one point.
• In North Carolina, 50% support Democrat Josh Stein, while 34% support Republican Mark Robinson.
  • Since the September election, Stein has gained two points while Robinson has lost six points.
• In Pennsylvania, 48% support incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, while 46% support Republican Dave McCormick.
  • Since last month, Casey’s support has increased by one point and McCormick’s support has increased by four points.
• In Wisconsin, 50% support incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, while 46% support Republican Eric Hovde.
  • Since September, Baldwin’s support has increased by one point and Hovde held 46%.

Abortion on the ballot

In Arizona and Nevada, proposals to introduce a constitutional amendment that would provide a right to abortion until the fetus is viable will be on the ballot. A majority of Arizona voters (54%) plan to vote “yes” on Proposition 139, while 33% plan to vote against it and 13% are undecided. Also in Nevada, 55% plan to vote for Proposition 6, while 33% plan to vote no and 13% are undecided.

Top topic

Economic concerns remain the top issue for voters in their state, with the exception of Arizona, where immigration is the top issue for 30% of voters, followed by the economy at 24%.

• Arizona: 30% immigration, 24% economy, 11% threats to democracy, 10% affordable housing, 10% abortion access
• Georgia: 47% economy, 10% threats to democracy, 8% immigration, 8% affordable housing, 7% health care
• Michigan: 51% Economy, 11% Threats to Democracy, 8% Housing Affordability, 7% Health Care
• Nevada: 36% economy, 15% affordable housing, 13% immigration, 11% threat to democracy
• North Carolina: 44% economy, 10% immigration, 9% affordable housing, 9% education
• Pennsylvania: 47% Economy, 12% Threats to Democracy, 11% Immigration, 7% Health Care
• Wisconsin: 43% economy, 11% threats to democracy, 9% abortion access, 9% immigration, 8% affordable housing

Endorsement by President Biden

• Arizona: 36% approve, 56% disapprove
• Georgia: 40% agree, 54% disagree
• Michigan: 41% approve, 53% disapprove
• Nevada: 38% approve, 54% disapprove
• North Carolina: 40% approve, 53% disapprove
• Pennsylvania: 40% approve, 53% disapprove
• Wisconsin: 39% approve, 53% disapprove

Governor’s approval

• Arizona: Katie Hobbs (D) 38% approve, 41% disapprove
• Georgia: Brian Kemp (R) 55% approve, 25% disapprove
• Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 49% approve, 43% disapprove
• Nevada: Joe Lombardo (R) 37% approve, 29% disapprove
• North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D) 45% approve, 39% disapprove
• Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro (D) 48% approve, 35% disapprove
• Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D) 44% approve, 42% disapprove

METHODOLOGY

The sample size for Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is n=1,000 likely voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of +/-3%. The sample size for Michigan is n=950, with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. The sample size in Nevada is n=900 with a credibility interval of +/-3.2%. The data was weighted by statewide voter parameters including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and voter registration/turnout data.

The survey was conducted by contacting respondents’ mobile phones via MMS-to-Web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response, with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. The data was collected between October 5th and 8th, 2024.

It is important to keep in mind that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity result in higher credibility intervals when the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey’s rating range and you should understand that with a 95% confidence interval, a survey will fall outside the rating range 1 in 20 times.

For all questions asked in this survey, including the exact wording, as well as full results, demographics, and crosstabs, see Full Results. The poll was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.

FULL RESULTS