Update: Added comments from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center on the timing of arrival of the fastest-moving coronal mass ejection in the current solar cycle.

Are you ready for the Northern Lights tonight? In contrast to recent forecasts for possible, potential and probably weak aurora phenomena, there is something special to consider here: a “severe” geomagnetic storm.

Space weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have released a forecast for a G4 (severe) geomagnetic storm for Thursday, October 10 and Friday, October 11.

“We are forecasting a G4 severe magnetic geomagnetic storm,” Shawn Dahl, service coordinator at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, said in a news conference Wednesday. “The current expectation is that it will arrive tomorrow (Thursday) morning to noon Eastern time and possibly continue into the next day (Friday).”

Check out my feed and NOAA’s Aurora Dashboard, especially for the helpful Aurora Viewline for tonight and tomorrow, which currently shows this promising graphic:

US states where the Northern Lights could be visible

“The Northern Lights could be visible across much of the northern half of the country and possibly as far south as Alabama and Northern California,” the Northern Lights warning says.

Dahl added that the central eastern states up to the lower Midwest and perhaps northern California could see the aurora. Anything further south would be a global phenomenon like the sudden “solar superstorm” on May 10, possibly the strongest aurora in hundreds of years, which in practice turned out to be a G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm.

It’s rare that a G4-type geomagnetic storm is predicted, so it’s wise to prepare for a major spectacle – although it could be not only a stronger G5, but also a weaker G3. Here’s how the scale works, according to NOAA:

• G2 storms (minor storms) are generally observed as far south as New York and Idaho.
• G3 (moderate) storms are generally observed as far south as Illinois and Oregon.
• G4 storms (severe storms) are generally observed as far south as Alabama and Northern California.
• G5 (extreme) storms are generally observed as far south as Florida and South Texas.

When and where will the Northern Lights be visible?

It is difficult to predict exactly where and when the Northern Lights will occur. “We never know for sure,” Dahl said. “If the storm continues to progress as expected, then we are talking about this being a G4 aurora as expected, then we are talking about the aurora being much further south of these northern states.”

“We have a high level of confidence in the arrival of CME on Earth and we have a fair amount of confidence in our timing,” Dahl said. However, the intensity of the aurora is much more difficult to predict. “What we have with this G4 clock is really our best guess because we don’t know what this CME actually looks like, and we won’t know until it arrives at a satellite a million miles from Earth and which we use to measure these changes in the solar wind.”

Solar physicists and scientists will study changes in Earth’s magnetic field and the speed of the solar wind to understand exactly when the CME will arrive.

That’s about 15 to 30 minutes before it reaches Earth and produces auroras. — between 6:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

How to see the Northern Lights

Light pollution can make the northern lights difficult to see. Therefore, try to get out of the city into the rural sky and first check whether the weather is clear. If there are clouds, you won’t see anything.

The best locations are places that appear dark on a light pollution map, preferably places that don’t have a large city to the north. Excellent excursion destinations are the International Dark Sky Places, which include many state parks and US national parks.

How to photograph the Northern Lights

It’s possible, especially if you live in a city, that you’ll only have photographic auroras that require a smartphone or camera to view. Here’s what you can do with your smartphone to check if there are faint auroras nearby.

• Activate “Night Mode” which is enough to take a more impressive souvenir photo of the Northern Lights. This likely means a long exposure of between five and ten seconds, which is why the next three steps are essential.
• Use your main lens, NOT the super wide angle lens (which is inferior).
• Use a simple smartphone holder and a small tripod to prevent camera shake and keep your images sharp.
• Shoot in raw format, making it easier to enhance your photos with simple edits.

What is causing the Northern Lights this week?

The cause is a coronal mass ejection – a stream of charged particles from the Sun – that erupted from the Sun late on October 8 and is moving rapidly towards Earth. According to NOAA, it will likely arrive on October 10 after hurtling through space at 2.5 million miles per hour. “It is the fastest CME we have measured so far this solar cycle,” said Dahl.

“Upon arrival of this CME and throughout its passage, there is a potential for G4 (severe),” NOAA explains.

However, there is always uncertainty about predicting auroral phenomena, as NOAA states: “We will not know the characteristics of the CME until it arrives 1 million miles from Earth and its speed and magnetic intensity are measured by DSCOVR.” ACE- satellites,” explains NOAA.

For the latest updates, see NOAA’s Aurora View Line, NOAA’s 30-minute forecast, and their X account, where the latest updates are posted.

“Solar Maximum” news

On either side of the G4 geomagnetic storm warning issued by NOAA on October 9, two solar flares occurred on the Sun. An X-class X1.8 flare at 01:56 UTC was followed by an X1.4 burst at 15:47 UTC. They were discovered by Earth-orbiting satellites, including NASA’s SOHO Observatory.

Geomagnetic activity peaks when the Sun is near “solar maximum” – the peak of its 11-year solar cycle – and near the equinox, when the Earth’s axis is tilted sideways to the Sun. Both conditions are currently met.

The latest SWPC forecast suggests the sun will reach its solar maximum between August 2024 and January 2025. However, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and NASA announced on Tuesday, October 8, that a media conference call will be held on Tuesday, October 8, at 2 p.m. EDT. 15 to discuss the activity of the sun and the course of the solar cycle 25.

Either way, the high number of solar flares and CMEs and the frequent and powerful geomagnetic storms they cause are likely to continue until 2026.

I wish you clear skies and big eyes.