The Grammy Screening Committee, which has the final say on which albums fit best into the Grammy process, placed Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter and Post Malone F-1 trillion in the “Best Country Album” category. They’re competing with 77 other albums for just five spots in the final vote. Nominations will be announced on November 8th.

Both have a good chance of making it. Post was widely praised for coming to Nashville and learning the city’s people and customs. Beyoncé didn’t do this, as Luke Bryan, HARDY and others have pointed out, but her album shines a bright spotlight on the contributions that black artists have made to country music – contributions that have all too often been overlooked.

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Beyoncé is aiming to become only the second black artist nominated for best country album. Mickey Guyton was nominated in 2022 for her debut studio album. Remember her name. (Important note: The Grammys did not have this category in the 1970s when Charley Pride was at its peak.)

Beyoncé didn’t receive any CMA nominations, but that doesn’t hurt her album’s chances here. The Chicks were nominated for (and won) five Grammys for their 2006 album. Take the long wayalthough they were also left out of this year’s CMA nominations. (The Chicks were nominated for Vocal Group of the Year at the CMAs the following year, a span that also included their Grammy win.)

Beyoncé’s exclusion from the CMA nominations drew widespread attention. Some Grammy voters may embrace her in part to make up for this perceived snub. (“Makeup voting” is a real thing. Many believe Ben Affleck failed to receive an Oscar nomination for best director.) Argo helped this film win the Best Picture award in 2012.)

Four of the five albums nominated for the CMA Award for Album of the Year are considered here: Luke Combs’ fathers and sonsCody Johnson’s leatherKacey Musgraves’ Deeper well and Chris Stapletons Higher.

Stapleton and Musgraves are both repeat winners of the Grammy for Best Country Album. Stapleton has won the award three times; Musgraves won it twice. Fun fact: If Stapleton wins again, he will move into a tie as the act with the most wins in the history of this category. And who will he bind? The chicks.

Combs has yet to win a Grammy for Best Country Album, but was nominated for a previous album, Grow up. Johnson has yet to be nominated in this category.

The fifth CMA nominee for Album of the Year, Jelly Roll’s Whitsitt Chapelvied for a Grammy nomination for best country album last year, but ultimately wasn’t nominated. (Of course, it’s not Grammy-eligible again this year.)

That’s six albums that have an excellent chance of being nominated, which is one more than the number of spots available. (The Grammys only expand the field to more than five if there is a tie. Since 2000, there have been six nominees twice – in 2004 and 2012.)

And there are even more albums that shouldn’t be missed, so obviously some won’t make it.

How F-1 trillionLainey Wilson’s Whirlwind came out late at this year’s CMAs, but is eligible here. Wilson’s previous album, Bell Bottom Landwon the Grammy for Best Country Album and was named Album of the Year at both the CMA and ACM Awards.

Zach Bryans The great American bar scene would have been a strong contender – his previous album, Zach BryanHe was nominated in this category last year – but the unconventional star didn’t submit it for the Grammy.

Shaboozeys Where I’ve been is not where I’m going Maybe it’s not to be missed, but it’s a strong contender. It features the hit “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” which topped the Billboard Hot 100 for 13 weeks, longer than any other single that year. More important in the context of its chances here is that it topped Country Airplay for seven weeks.

Megan Moroney Am I okay? also has a chance. Moroney is also up for a nomination for best new artist. Other albums by the best emerging artists on the best country albums list include “Dasha.” What happens now?? and Nate Smiths Through the smoke.

Several other albums from previous Best Country Album Grammy nominees are in the running – Jason Aldean’s Highway desperadoKenny Chesney’s BornTim McGraw’s CV of a poetWillie Nelsons The borderThomas Rhetts About a woman and Sturgill Simpson (Johnny Blue Skies). Passage Du Desir.

Albums by different artists are rarely nominated in this category, but this year there are two notable candidates: Petty Country: A Country Music Celebration by Tom Petty And A tribute to the Judds. Only two albums by different artists were nominated in this category; both won. Timeless: Hank Williams Tribute Won in 2002. Live, Love, Lose: Songs of the Louvin Brothers Won in 2004.

Another top-class album from Different Artists, Twisters: The Albumis not in the running here. It is competing for a nomination for Best Compilation Soundtrack for Visual Media.

Our fearless forecast

So which five albums have the best chance of being nominated in this Grammy category? This is harsh, but here’s my prediction (ordered alphabetically by artist): Beyoncés Cowboy CarterPost Malone F-1 trillionKacey Musgraves’ Deeper wellChris Stapleton Higher and Lainey Wilsons Whirlwind.

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