The rivalry between the Dodgers and Padres took another turn on Sunday when San Diego hit six home runs in a dominant 10-2 win to tie the series at one game apiece.

There was a lot of chirping on both sides, from a Padres batter getting hit in the batter’s box to LA fans hurling baseballs and debris from the outside seating onto the playing field.

There is no doubt between these teams and their fan bases, as the Padres are desperate to get out of the Dodgers’ shadow and win their first World Series title. While the Padres have a bit of little brother syndrome, this team is well-equipped to compete with the Dodgers.

While Los Angeles is fully capable of bouncing back in Game 3, I discovered an interesting aspect that supports a game against San Diego in the first five innings.

Dodgers vs Padres odds

Dodgers outlook

There was a time when the mention of Walker Buehler on the mound would have seemed like a lock to a Dodgers win. However, due to injuries, Buehler only made 28 starts over the last three seasons.

After missing all of 2023 due to a second Tommy John surgery, Buehler returned to action in May but missed another two months due to hip inflammation in June.

He went just 1-6 on the year with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.

His command has been an issue, as his 3.35 walks per nine innings are the second-highest of his career. Additionally, his called plus swinging strike rate of 26% is the worst mark of his career.

This is a concerning sign for Buehler as his K/9 ratio is at a career low. He also gives up home runs at an alarming rate of 1.91 per nine innings.

Although he can still find his form, he hasn’t pitched since Sept. 26, when he allowed one run on five hits in five innings against the Padres. Buehler left the game with a 1-0 lead, and the Dodgers rallied from a 2-0 deficit in the seventh inning to win 7-2.

Even though the Padres lost the game, they would have paid out a first-five bet on the spread and moneyline.

Padres outlook

The Padres will counter with Michael King, who has been a full-time starter since being traded to San Diego in the trade that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees.

Although he was a good pitcher for the Yankees, there weren’t many opportunities for King to prove his quality as a starter. In 115 appearances in New York, he only made 19 starts.

With the Padres, he made 30 starts in 31 appearances, finishing the season 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA and a 10.42 K/9 ratio.

King is incredibly talented with a four-pitch arsenal and he’s pretty balanced with his approach, throwing every pitch at least 23% of the time. His CSW percentage is elite at 31.3%, as is his HR/9 ratio of 0.88.

He was outstanding in his first playoff start, striking out five hits in seven shutout innings against Atlanta in Game 1 of the Wild Card round.

King was able to maintain his schedule, pitching once a week every Tuesday since September 17th. So he managed to establish a rhythm in the playoffs, while Buehler could well be dealing with some rust since his last outing.

Dodgers vs. Padres selection

Under normal circumstances, the Dodgers probably wouldn’t hand the ball to Buehler at this point. However, they are already missing starters Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May.

The Padres went 8-5 against the Dodgers in the regular season, so they will have plenty of confidence as the series moves to San Diego.

Find out everything you need to know about MLB betting

While you might think the Dodgers are a perfect candidate to bounce back after allowing double-digit runs, teams in this spot are just 16-26 compared to the first five run spread since 2012.

Additionally, if we adjust our parameters to include only street dogs in Game 3, they are 0-3 against the first five runs.

Best Bet: Padres F5 Run Line (-110, DraftKings)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa América.