If Liberty has any hope of bidding for the Group of Five College Football Playoff, it will have to blow the doors off everyone who stands in its way. The Flames have a 17-point lead heading into today’s matchup against the Golden Panthers, but my FIU-Liberty predictions explain why it won’t be as easy as it looks.

Here are my college football picks for this C-USA matchup on Tuesday, October 8th.

Florida International vs. Liberty prediction and best bet

My best choice
FIU +10.5 spread in the first half of the year (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

I understand why the Liberty Flames are 17 points ahead of the Florida International Golden Panthers.

The Flames are undefeated and the heavy favorites to win C-USA this year. They also play at home against a Golden Panthers team that lost to FCS Monmouth a few weeks ago.

But I’m not ready to write off FIU at this point.

First of all, this Liberty team isn’t as dominant as the team that went 13-0 en route to the C-USA Championship. The Flames come into this game at 4-0, but have been sloppy.

Liberty was at least a 22-point favorite in each of its first three games and went 0-3 ATS in those games. Then, in their last game, they needed a big second-half comeback to win and secure a win against East Carolina as 7.5-point home favorites. A comeback that was helped by a late mistake by the Pirates.

Liberty still has a strong running game, but the offense just hasn’t been as strong this season. Overall, the Flames rank 61st in EPA/Offense and 41st in EPA/Rush.

Meanwhile, the Flames defense has allowed 24 points against three of their four opponents this season and ranks 73rd in EPA/game.

Now let’s try to solve the mystery of the FIU. The Golden Panthers began this season with a respectable loss to Indiana, considered a big road dog, and followed that with a blowout win over Central Michigan.

Then the wheels somehow fell off. The Panthers did not face their rival Florida Atlantic and then suffered a tough 45-42 loss to FCS Monmouth as 12-point home favorites.

After two brutal defeats that stretched to three against Louisiana Tech, FIU appeared to be a possibility for the weak home dogs. Of course, the Panthers clearly won 17:10.

As a result, it was difficult to get an overview of Florida International’s roster, but the Panthers have had success when they have controlled the football effectively, and in this game they have a chance to do that.

While FIU is struggling to stop the run and Liberty could wear down the Panthers as the game goes on, the fact that Liberty is playing at a slow pace (90th in seconds/game) bodes well for a slow start this game.

I’m betting this game is closer than that spread suggests, especially in the first half where Liberty has an average first half point differential of -2.3 compared to their FBS opponents. Give me FIU so that this value remains in double digits in the first half of the year.

Florida International vs. Liberty, Match Negotiation (SGP)

FIU +10.5 spread for the first half

Quinton Cooley over 100.5 rush yards

Kejon Owens over 36.5 rush yards

Let’s go wild with this same-play parlay, starting with Liberty running back Quinton Cooley. Cooley is the leader of the Flames. He is also the most explosive back on the roster and has carried the ball 53 times for 371 yards at a clip of 7.0 yards/carry.

Cooley has surpassed 100 yards rushing in three of Liberty’s four games this season, coming against an FIU defense that ranks 121st in opponent EPA/rush. I like Cooley’s chances of making it at four out of five.

Then let’s jump to the other side and back Kejon Owens to surpass a modest 36.5 rushing total. He leads the Panthers with 45 carries and is aiming for a solid 4.7 yards per carry. He is averaging 42.6 rushing yards per game this season and should maintain that against a mediocre Liberty rush defense.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida International vs Liberty odds

Live odds for Florida International vs Liberty

Opening odds for Florida International vs. Liberty

• Florida International vs. Liberty spread: Freedom -20
• Florida International vs. Liberty Moneyline: Florida International +800, Liberty -1,300
• Florida International vs. Liberty Over/Under: 54

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Florida International vs. Liberty Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• Liberty opened this U.S.-U.S. matchup as a 20-point home favorite, but it was FIU that got the early action and cut the lead to Liberty -17.
• Liberty has consistently underperformed oddsmakers’ expectations this season, going 1-3 ATS, but was the favorite in all four games and had 22 or more points in three of them. While it’s always hard to say which version of FIU we’ll see, the Panthers come into this game 3-2 ATS.
• The total was 54, and bets were up to 55.5 on Tuesday afternoon.
• Both Liberty and FIU are expected to have success in this game and are 5-3-1 overall this season at the over. But all that running and a potentially slow start with a long break for both teams and I’m tired of the over here.

Florida International vs Liberty betting trend worth knowing

Liberty has only covered the 1H spread in 5 of its last 12 games for -3.05 units and an ROI of -23%. Find more college football betting trends for Florida International vs. Liberty.

Information about the Florida International vs. Liberty game

Florida International’s current injuries against Liberty

Weather Florida International vs. Liberty

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