Topline

The odds on a notable presidential election betting platform shifted sharply in favor of former President Donald Trump on Monday, much to the delight of the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, although the strange moves on other sites offering betting were far less drastic failed.

Important facts

What we don’t know

What caused the swing in Trump’s favor at Polymarket. Some social media users noticed the move came when an anonymous user named “Fredi9999” increased his bets on a Trump victory to over $4 million. Polymarket does not restrict individual bettors like PredictIt ($850 limit) or Kalshi ($25,000) because it operates as an “offshore” book and is not subject to the same federal regulations. So it’s possible that Trump’s chances on Polymarket shifted as this was the result of buying activity from one or a handful of major customers rather than a significant change in the electoral landscape.

tangent

Musk, who endorsed Trump in July and appeared at a rally with the Republican candidate on Saturday, shared several posts on his social media platform X highlighting the Polymarket move. Musk shared a post linking the jump to his appearance at Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania, wrote that betting odds are “more accurate than polls because there is real money at stake,” and reposted a screenshot showing Harris’ “slump.” ‘ announced election chances.

Surprising fact

In a post Monday evening on his Silver Bulletin blog, statistician Nate Silver noted that the shift in Trump’s favor on Polymarket was a “bigger swing than warranted” – and pointed out that his election model gives Harris a 54 chance of winning, 7% show. Silver, who also serves as a consultant for Polymarket, added that “not much” is driving the trend, but cited several theories, such as: B. Trigger-happy traders, Musk’s hype and that Polymarket’s trader base may be more Trump supporters.

Cons

National polls show Harris with a slight lead over Trump, and FiveThirtyEight puts Harris’ chances of getting enough votes to win at 55%.

Crucial quote

“Polymarket effectively takes what would otherwise be an online argument and turns it into a market where the person who is right wins,” Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan told Forbes in July.

Further reading

ForbesMeet the 26-year-old who is building a multi-billion dollar prediction marketFrom Nina Bambysheva
ForbesTrump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris leads in four new national polls amid virtual ties in swing statesFrom Sara Dorn