Welcome back to another season of fantasy football speculation. Use our patented, data-driven, formula-based approach to discover next week’s waiver headliners…today. Position by position, I dig into my favorite obscure stats related to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mix them all together and hopefully find some cheap fantasy gems that I can grab now before the squares do. Then, for any last-minute managers on the go, I’m adding a new section – “Sunday’s Streaming Service” – to help fill 11th-hour gaps in first-come free agency leagues.

Quarterbacks

When I started collecting obscure data, I realized something. The small nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to list all available free agents rather than isolating specific statistics. So please enjoy the images courtesy of Trumedia. When looking for a fantasy quarterback, we obviously need volume, but also a willingness to push the ball downfield – so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s time to plot the expected completion rate of EPA/attempts and NextGen stats to complete the picture by combining good play and efficiency. (pictures below)

Before you browse our bargain box, you should make sure Sam Darnold, Justin Fields And Derek Carr are no longer available. The charts have been trying to convince us to stream all year long Deshaun Watson Without success, but (sigh) this time it’s different. And no, Watson still isn’t very good, as he continues to regularly deliver some of the most frustratingly negative plays you’ve ever seen. Sometimes matchups force us to act, and these Browns are desperate to get a win against the NFL’s EPA-worst defense. If Watson doesn’t make it on Sunday against Washington, expect an announcement from the front office on Monday.

Running backs

Since we’re coming to you after the first series of weekly dispensations, I won’t repeat the usual suspects – we’re here to get weird. However, make sure to add popular adds Trey Sermon, Antonio GibsonAnd Kareem Hunt Have a home before you dive deep into the dumpster. Last year I proved my success by moving away from the lowest hanging fruit in the overall touch. Instead, I describe load slightly differently using touch-per-snap rate, which provides a unique perspective on frequency without the need for volume. Then I break out the microscope and look for largely unranked ball carriers who are showing top-notch efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: If a player appears on both lists, we’ll likely need to prioritize him as a speculative addition.

3 available RBs with +40.0% touch-per-snap rate (past 3 games)

6 available RBs with +0.35 fantasy points per snap (last 3 games)

Not a great weekend for desperate RB streams if you happened to sleep through the first waiver run. My go-to for this weekend and beyond is definitely Green Bay’s Emanuel Wilson. Not only is he committed to a high-caliber offense, but he could also have standalone value with MarShawn Lloyd on IR. Coach Matt LaFleur has always divided the work in the backcourt to some extent. Wilson should also be the main beneficiary of some unnecessary fantasy points on Sunday as the Packers give the Rams’ struggling defense a run for their money.

Bonus: Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) missed the Commanders’ vaulting practice again on Thursday Jeremy McNichols into viability. McNichols finished Week 4 as one of the top 10 fantasy RBs in PPR scoring with 74 total yards and two rushing touchdowns.

Wide receiver

As with the RBs, make sure this week’s universal supplements are available Dontayvion wicksXavier Legette, And Jordan Whittington I already belong to a squad. With that out of the way, any smart fantasy manager knows that targets are earned – which is exactly why the talent level at the position is so important. Achieving goals is the vehicle for WR speculation – the opportunities will come. And while playtime is nice, it’s not enough. Snap count is a good measure of general usage, but routes perform better in testing. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking the field? I don’t. Let’s see who ran both routes and attracted an above-average number of looks.

9 available WRs with +15 routes run per game, +16% targets per route, and +0.20 fantasy points per route (last 3 games)

• Tutu Atwell, LAR – 21.0 Rte/Gm, 23.8% TPRR, 0.53 FPS/Rte
• Tre Tucker, LV – 31.0 Rte/Gm, 18.3% TPRR, 0.44 FPS/Rte
• Jakobi Meyers, LV – 35.3 Rte/Gm, 22.6% TPRR, 0.36 FPS/Rte
• Noah Brown, WAS – 18.7 Rte/Gm, 17.9% TPRR, 0.36 FPS/Rte
• Jalen Tolbert, DAL – 36.0 Rte/Gm, 15.7% TPRR, 0.30 FPS/Rte
• Josh Palmer, LAC – 19.0 Rte/Gm, 15.8% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
• Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL – 31.0 Rte/Gm, 16.1% TPRR, 0.26 FPS/Rte
• Ja’Lynn Polk, NE – 24.3 Rte/Gm, 16.4% TPRR, 0.25 FPS/Rte
• Lil’Jordan Humphrey, DEN – 26.7 Rte/Gm, 17.5% TPRR, 0.23 FPS/Rte

News came out of Dallas on Wednesday that Brandin Cooks will miss at least a week because of an infection he contracted from vaccinations to avoid an MCL repair on his sore knee. Not great. It shocked me to see that the heir to the throne, Jalen Tolbertremained in only 5% of Yahoo leagues. I pegged Tolbert as a potential second-half breakout prospect this summer after a strong preseason with plenty of positive reports, and it looks like a legitimate full-time opportunity has just emerged in a potentially top-tier offense. Tolbert has already outpaced the Cooks in essentially identical route and target loads, so I fully expect the third-year wideout to get the lion’s share of playing time for the Cowboys.

Tight ends

Remember to ensure this week’s top new arrivals Cole Kmet, Colby Parkinson And Tyler Conklin don’t float around first. It’s been a rough start for the game’s weakest position, but I refuse to capitulate to TE agnosticism. This could well end up as a futile exercise, but in these fantasy streets there is no retreat and no surrender. Since then, I’ve incorporated quality red zone targets to complete the trifecta, but right now only three tight ends check all three boxes.

4 TEs with +10% team target share, +6.0 air yards per target and +1 end zone target

• Brenton Strange, JAX – 13.6% Team Tgt, 9.4 AY/Tar, 2 EZ Tar (Please note that Evan Engram could return on Sunday)
• Kyle Pitts, ATL – 13.3% Team Tgt, 8.7 AY/Tar, 2 EZ Tar
• Tyler Conklin, NYJ – 15.4% Team Tgt, 7.6 AY/Tar, 1 EZ Tar
• Mike Gesicki, CIN – 14.7% Team Tgt, 7.4 AY/Tar, 1 EZ Tar

Top stashes

Week 5 Sunday Streaming Service (>35% listed per Yahoo!)

• QB – Deshaun Watson, CLE @ WHAT
• RB – Jeremy McNichols WAS, vs. CLE
• RB – Emanuel Wilson, GB @ LAR
• WR – Jalen Tolbert, DAL @ PIT
• WR – Ja’Lynn Polk, NE vs. MIA
• TE – Mike Gesicki, CIN vs. BAL
• DST – Raiders @ DEN

Bonus Content: Anticipating NFL Trades

Superstar WR Davante Adams appears to be on the verge of a move, and that got me thinking about speculating on the potential value created by the trade. Adams has every player on the roster and will be hard to come by at a discount right now as everyone who drafted him in the top 15 is praying he ends up in Kansas City. Then I started thinking about the Chiefs’ situation and who else they might be targeting to replace Rashee Rice. Who’s a low-key, talented WR with great hands and skills working on a bad team that might be willing to deal him? Ask your league mates about it Christian Kirk – You might see a sales opportunity on the other side of the fence.

Thanks for reading – the comments, feedback and general response to the article have been almost overwhelming. If you have any comments or questions, you can always let my managers know how I’m doing. Be sure to follow me on

(Top photo by Jalen Tolbert: Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)