We do it every year.

Alabama only has four possible losses on the entire schedule! It will be the favorite in every game for the rest of the season!

Missouri’s entire season consists of just two games!

Tennessee’s path to the playoffs is now a breeze!

And every year, college football reminds us how foolish it is to make assumptions.

A sport that revolves around the performance of 18- to 22-year-olds week to week is always going to produce variation, and now the sport is being played with squads that fluctuate wildly from season to season, and teams are flying thousands to do it Miles across the country conference games.

We never learn to expect the unexpected, and Saturday provided the latest lesson that looking ahead to schedules and assuming victories is always a dangerous exercise.

A week of games without a mammoth showdown like the previous week’s instant classic Georgia-Alabama resulted in chaos and unexpected defeats. For the first time since November 12, 2016, five teams in the top 11 lost. Four lost to unranked teams, and Miami needed a dramatic 25-point comeback in the second half to avoid being placed in both lists become.

In a world with 12 College Football Playoff teams, that means all of those upsets shake up the field, even if losses like Alabama to Vanderbilt and Tennessee to Arkansas might not knock them off the field entirely. Sowing is important. The field shifts. More games are important.

Texas A&M’s demolition of Missouri is no longer just a spoiler. This is a team making a case to be included in the playoff conversation. UNLV’s home loss as the favorite to Syracuse isn’t just an entertaining Friday night game: It’s a result that fundamentally changes the look of the playoff field upon its arrival.

The same goes for Michigan and USC playing on the road and losing: both teams had to climb steep climbs from the edge of the playoff field to claw their way back into contention.

It’s easy to look ahead to the big games and shrug off weekend schedules that seem a little sleepy. And then days like Saturday happen that remind us once again of the unpredictability of these Saturdays.

I can’t wait to forget everything again and experience another Saturday full of surprises.

Each week, Bubble Watch examines who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle ahead of the first 12 College Football Playoffs. It is a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The top five ranked conference champions automatically receive a spot in the playoffs. Here you can find the bracket projections of Austin Mock’s model.

ACC

Clemson’s resurgence means the ACC looks like a league well-suited to getting two teams into the playoffs, although Miami saw more drama after a cross-country trip at Cal that began at 10:30 p.m. ET and remained undefeated.

Pitt is coming in with a much-improved offense and no losses.

Duke fell from the ranks of the undefeated, but Syracuse picked up a big road win at UNLV in overtime and could be in the mix as well.

After a loss to BYU, SMU didn’t seem like a team that could be a factor in the ACC race early this season. Now, do you have a win at Louisville and a string of wins over TCU and Florida State? Caution.

Big Ten

The question remains: Does the Big Ten have a playoff-caliber fourth team? USC and Michigan had major deficiencies in road losses to Minnesota and Washington. Will these long road trips bring more randomness to a sport that is already full of it?

Indiana, 6-0, has been dominant or solid in every win this season and faces Nebraska, Washington and travels to Michigan State before hosting Michigan in its first game against a ranked team on Nov. 9. Could Curt Cignetti’s team go into this game 9-0?

The Big Ten looks solid at the top – especially Ohio State – but the league’s second tier could be eliminated from the group if Indiana stumbles or Michigan or USC can’t compete late in the season.

Big 12

BYU and Texas Tech are thriving, and the Big 12 receiving an overall offer seems like a real possibility.

The Red Raiders have picked up solid wins against Arizona State and Arizona since a 21-point loss at Washington State, and it’s worth noting that Texas Tech was without running back Tahj Brooks in the loss to Palouse.

Iowa State needed tremendous heroics to beat Iowa in Iowa City, but was dominant in its four other wins. Cam Rising’s status still appears uncertain and Utah’s title hopes depend on his health. While chaos reigned in the SEC and Big Ten, the Big 12’s best teams all won or were idle on Saturday.

SEC

No conference saw a bigger shakeup in the pecking order than the SEC on Saturday after Alabama and Tennessee teamed up to become the first SEC teams in the top five to lose to unranked teams on the same day.

Alabama’s loss opens the SEC title game, with Texas standing alone as the last undefeated SEC team. However, Texas A&M is 3-0 in conference play and sits alone in first place in the standings, looking like an improved team after its season-opening loss to Notre Dame. LSU is the only other team without a conference loss.

The preseason candidates Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee have already made up ground a month after the start of the season. Missouri failed to overcome one of the conference’s easiest schedules, and the stunning loss in Aggieland could be the difference between inclusion and exclusion if the Tigers end the season at 10-2 with no major win on their resume. The Tigers may have to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa to get in the field.

Ole Miss rocked South Carolina in Columbia, getting a big boost from Saturday’s chaos after its own shocking loss to Kentucky a week ago.

Group of 5

The Army and Navy have two of their best teams in years and continue to destroy all comers. Navy’s average margin of victory is 23.4 points and they had a quality win against Memphis. The Army’s average margin of victory is 29 points. The American champions will have a great chance of making the field, but the playoff committee’s nightmare scenario is very much in play. Army and Navy could play an American title game that will decide who gets into the playoffs, followed by… the Army-Navy game seven days later, which will no longer be relevant as the playoff fields get closer.

Boise State appears to be the best team overall in Group 5 and could have a Heisman winner in notable running back Ashton Jeanty. After losing to Syracuse in non-conference, UNLV can work its way back into contention by defeating Boise later this month and making it again on championship weekend. For now, however, the Broncos deserve the driver’s seat.

Other

It was a good week not to play football. Thanks to all the chaos, Notre Dame is downgrading from “in the mix” to “likely in it,” but the odds are very much in the Irish’s favor despite the loss to Northern Illinois. Missouri suffered an unexpected loss – and in overwhelming fashion – which was a perfect way to start the day for Notre Dame, and it was even better to see Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan fall later. The only problem – and it might be a minor one – is that USC also suffered a loss, meaning Notre Dame’s potential to pick up a big win in the season finale was weakened. The Army and Navy look dangerous and could score big victories (or massive stumbles) in the next two months.

Texas A&M’s boost is a huge boost to Notre Dame’s resume.

(Photo of Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer: Carly Mackler / Getty Images)