Hurricane Milton has prompted hurricane and storm surge warnings to be issued along Florida’s western Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds and flooding rains are expected through midweek.

If you are in an area prone to storm surges, you should follow the advice of local authorities and evacuate if ordered. This is a serious situation as the National Hurricane Center is predicting a storm surge of 8 to 12 feet above ground level along Florida’s western Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay.

(CARD TRACKER: Track the storm here)

Hurricane and storm surge warnings apply here: A hurricane warning is in effect along the entire western Gulf Coast of Florida from Chokoloskee north to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay. This means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or greater) are generally possible within the observation area within 48 hours

A storm surge watch extends from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. This means that a life-threatening rise in water levels due to storm surges is possible in the region, usually within 48 hours.

Here is the current status on Milton: The hurricane is raging over the Gulf of Mexico, 750 miles west-southwest of Tampa. It is currently a Category 2 hurricane, moving east-southeast at a speed of 8 miles per hour.

Here is the current forecast for timing and intensity: Milton is expected to become a major hurricane of Category 3 or stronger sometime Monday. It could reach maximum Category 4 intensity over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The forecast assumes that Milton will experience some weakening as it approaches Florida due to increasing wind shear.

However, it is important to note that this possible weakening will not reduce the impacts we see from Milton, including severe storm surge. Milton could also grow larger as it approaches Florida, allowing impacts to spread over a larger area.

I​impacts forecast

The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast calls for storm surge to reach up to 8 to 12 feet above the ground when the peak of the storm surge coincides with high tide along Florida’s west-central Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Storm surge could reach up to 5 to 10 feet south of Fort Myers Beach and in areas north of Tampa Bay.

Expect adjustments to the storm surge forecast shown below in future forecast updates based on the track from Milton.

Rain flooding

Rain has drenched Florida since the weekend as a front moved across the state. Because of this rain prior to Milton’s arrival and rainfall from the hurricane itself through midweek, flood warnings were posted across much of the Florida Peninsula.

Totals could be 5 to 10 inches across the Florida Peninsula, with up to 15 inches locally by Thursday. This could result in significant flash flooding and river flooding.

(For even more detailed tracking of weather data in your area, see your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

Wind damage: This system has the potential to bring damaging winds to Florida’s western Gulf Coast beginning Wednesday. The strongest winds, which could cause structural damage, down trees and knock out power, will occur near where the center of Milton crosses the coast, which is still somewhat uncertain.

Areas further from the landfall point on the Florida Peninsula will also see some strong wind gusts, which could at least knock down trees and cause isolated power outages.

All hurricane preparations or recovery and reconstruction efforts should be completed by Tuesday evening. After that time, these efforts could be dangerous.

Check back with Weather.com in the coming days for updates as details become clearer.