ACC football returns to the stage this weekend when No. 15 Clemson takes on Florida State on Saturday night in Week 6 of college football. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the game from the expert model that will determine the winners.

Clemson is seeking a fourth straight win overall and a third straight win in ACC play, and head coach Dabo Swinney comes to Tallahassee looking to pass Bobby Bowden for the conference record in wins: A win would give Swinney his 174th win in bring his career.

Florida State could use a win of some sort, as Mike Norvell hasn’t quite lived up to Bowden’s standards with the program, starting 1-4 overall with a 1-3 mark in ACC play, although the team is close is coming off a win against ACC newcomer Cal a week ago.

What do the experts say about this week’s matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Clemson and Florida State will fare in this Week 6 college football game.

As expected, the simulations favor the Tigers defeating the Seminoles, albeit in a close game.

SP+ projects Clemson to defeat Florida State by a projected score of 30-22 and win the road game by a projected margin of 7.4 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 68 percent chance of an outright win against the Noles.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a win ratio of 53.8.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Clemson is a 14.5-point favorite against Florida State.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 46.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -700 for Clemson and +500 for Florida State.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Other analytical models also suggest the Tigers win this ACC matchup.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Clemson is expected to win the game in an overwhelming 80.1 percent of the latest computer simulations.

That leaves Florida State as the expected winner in the remaining 19.9 percent of the Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, with both teams’ current makeup, Clemson is expected to be 12.6 points better than Florida State on the same field.

Even that wouldn’t be enough for the Tigers to cover their lead against the Seminoles.

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 32.8 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.5 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Florida State an overall win projection of 3.7 games and a 5.3 percent chance of being bowl eligible.

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7pm Eastern
TV: ESPN Network

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection