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    • Michigan vs. Arkansas State Football Prediction and Scouting Report
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    Michigan vs. Arkansas State Football Prediction and Scouting Report

    Caradoc Wyn Posted on

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    Free Press sportswriter Tony Garcia analyzes Michigan football’s Week 3 game against Arkansas State on Saturday in Ann Arbor:

    Michigan vs. Arkansas State – quick facts

    Comparison: No. 16 Michigan (1-1) vs. Arkansas State (2-0).

    Start: Saturday, 12:00 p.m.; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

    Television/Radio: Big Ten Network; WTKA-AM (1050).

    Line: Wolverines with 22½.

    Availability report

    Michigan: From: S Rod Moore, WR Joe Taylor. Probably: Quarterback Jack Tuttle.

    Arkansas State: Out: C Jacob Bayer (torn cruciate ligament). Questionable: OT Makilan Thomas.

    Scouting report

    When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines’ offense has been awful the past two weeks, ranking 103rd nationally in scoring at 21 points per game. The passing offense has struggled since quarterback Davis Warren replaced JJ McCarthy. While it’s not all his fault – he’s working behind an offensive line with five new starters and throwing to two freshman starters at receiver – he hasn’t done much to improve the unit, as he ranks 18th out of 18 Big Ten passers in yards per game (161.5).

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    This week, however, both head coach Sherrone Moore and offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell emphasized what the offense’s identity should be. “We’re just making sure we stay true to what we want to do,” Campbell said Monday. “We’re going to be a downhill run team, complimented on the perimeter and complimented in the play-action passing game. That’s not going to change. We have the ability to do it, we just have to show it on Saturday.”

    If that’s the case, that likely means more touches for Kalel Mullings, who averaged 5.6 yards per carry on his 21 carries, and fewer for Donovan Edwards, who averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. Ben Hall could also get some work in this game, as UM will look to control time of possession and rush for over 150 yards for the first time this season. Look for Arkansas State safety Justin Parks, defensive end Bryan Whitehead and linebacker Charles Willekes (whose older brother Kenny was an All-American at Michigan State).

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    When Arkansas State has the ball: The Red Wolves will look to continue their passing success, as they rank 37th in the nation with 286 yards per game. It hasn’t always been pretty: Arkansas State led by 17 early in the fourth quarter in Week 1, but then allowed 21 unanswered points before a touchdown pass with three seconds left was enough to win the game. Jaylen Raynor, the reigning Sun Belt Freshman of the Year, is a dual-threat quarterback who completed 57% of his passes for 572 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions and ran 34 times for 122 yards and two TDs.

    The other big running threat is Zak Wallace, who has 119 yards and two touchdowns. Although the offensive numbers were good early on, this will be by far the Red Wolves’ toughest challenge yet. In addition, wide receiver Corey Rucker is one of the best receivers in the Sun Belt, averaging 18.3 yards per pass.

    The UM defense will be the Red Wolves’ toughest test yet.

    “On defense, they probably have three first-rounders,” Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones said. “They’re a good football team. There’s a reason they won the national championship last year. They’re going to be one of the best teams in the Big Ten Conference. They’re well-coached; I have a lot of respect for their coaching staff and what they do.”

    Know the enemy

    Proud program: Arkansas State hasn’t been relevant recently but has had a winning record, appearing in a bowl game for nearly a decade straight (2011-19). Several successful coaches have used the Red Wolves as a springboard, including current Auburn coach Hugh Freeze (2011), UCF coach Gus Malzahn (2012), former Auburn coach Bryan Harsin (2013) and former Utah State coach Blake Anderson (2015).

    The Red Wolves won five Sun Belt titles over the past decade before suffering a setback during the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season. Slowly, the program has rebuilt over the past three seasons, going from two wins to six last year and the program’s first bowl berth since 2019.

    Welcome back, Butch?: Speaking of proud, Jones is proud to return to his home state of Michigan. A Saugatuck native, Jones knows Michigan well, having spent time on staff at Ferris State (1995-97) and Central Michigan (1998-2004), where he later became head coach (2007-09) and won two MAC titles.

    He appears to have rebuilt the Red Wolves, as he has been one of the conference’s top recruits three years in a row, according to 247 Sports. Jones has an overall record of 97-80, including two Big East championships (2011-12) and a Big East Coach of the Year Award in Cincinnati before becoming head coach at Tennessee (2012-17) and then offensive analyst for Alabama (2018-20).

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    Familiar faces: Two Wolverine assistants have spent time coaching in the Sun Belt – Campbell (Old Dominion, 2020-21) and defensive backs coach LaMar Morgan (Louisiana, 2019-20, 2022-23 and Louisiana Monroe, 2016-17). The most familiar face in this game, however, will be Michigan kicker Dominic Zvada. He began his career at ASU, where he made 34 of 40 field goals and 71 of 72 extra point attempts.

    “When Michigan started recruiting me, I knew I would play them if it was possible to go there,” Zvada said Tuesday. “I still love them. I talk to them to see how they’re doing. They’re off to a great start to the season and I congratulate them. No animosity. It’s all love and I love them and it will be nice to see them.”

    Tony Garcia’s two cents

    Back to basics: Michigan wants to get back to its roots and win possession. That starts with establishing the running game. UM needs to try some jet sweeps with Semaj Morgan and bubble screens to Tyler Morris — take a leaf out of Texas’ book and have the defense move from sideline to sideline — which can then open up more gaps for Mullings and Edwards. Tulsa averaged more than 5 yards per run against ASU last week, and Central Arkansas managed more than 230 yards on the ground against the Red Wolves.

    Defensive discipline: A big part of Arkansas State’s offense is their read-option running game. That can put a lot of strain on a defense — especially one with as many simulated pressure situations and different plays as the Wolverines — and will be an interesting test for Wink Martindale’s unit, particularly the fullbacks. The key to stopping the read option is eye discipline, as the fullback and play-side linebacker both have to account for ball carriers. If UM can force the Red Wolves into obvious pass attempts, it will likely look a bit like Week 1, when both Zeke Berry and Will Johnson threw interceptions.

    forecast

    Arkansas State is expected to compete for the Sun Belt this year and can throw the ball. Michigan gets the perfect opponent to improve its running game – the Red Wolves’ defense is No. 114 in the nation, allowing 199 yards per game. This week, Michigan’s offense goes back to basics, with Kalel Mullings breaking the 100-yard mark with two scores. The selection: Michigan 30, Arkansas State 7.

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    Caradoc Wyn
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