We end another week of prime-time baseball with the Houston Astros taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks to close out their series.

Our Diamondbacks vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks target the Over, with Arizona looking to avoid a sweep. We analyze it all below.

Prediction Diamondbacks vs. Astros

My best bet
Over 8 (-115 at BetMGM)

My analysis
Things haven’t been the same for Justin Verlander lately, and one wonders if that’s it. In his last five starts, he has failed to pitch more than five innings and has an ERA of nearly 7.00. Such numbers are unheard of for this future Hall of Famer, and immediately indicate that the Stroos will soon start to fade.

The problem, however, is that I can’t trust Ryne Nelson, who plays on the other side for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He avoids open bases pretty well, but beyond that there’s not much to do. The barrel rate and hard hit rate are particularly problematic, and that’s something that a lineup with so much power can benefit from.

Which brings me to the over. That total is a little low, but it’s mostly Verlander’s earnings, so we’ll start there.

Moreover, that low total is a product of his historic dominance over Arizona, where he has shined in seven career starts. The veteran pitcher has posted a sub-2.00 ERA, including five scoreless innings when he faced them last season.

It’s important, however, that you consider what happened in your recent memory when evaluating this game. Because it’s clear that something has changed for Verlander this year, given how awful he’s been. For us, it’s another sign that the hourglass on his elite career may have run out.

His recent history includes allowing more than two earned runs in his last five starts, except for one against the Red Sox. What was special about that Red Sox team? On any given day, they have 4-5 players in their lineup who have a whiff rate of over 30% on the fastball. This isn’t Arizona. The Snakes hit the fastball as well as any team in baseball, especially lately.

On the other hand, Nelson has been good lately, but I don’t like this matchup for him. Since the All-Star break, the Astros have been in the top 10 in both barrel and hard-hit rates, which have been his biggest problem areas this season.

His four straight games in which he allowed two or fewer earned hits are impressive, but that’s just a smokescreen. Only one of those games came against a team that ranks anywhere near the top of baseball in hard hit rate. That was against the Mets, who had eight hits against him and were very unlucky not to get on the scoreboard.

Give me runs today. Both teams are well positioned to score points. One has a good matchup and the other is facing a pitcher who is past his prime.

Diamondbacks vs. Astros – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Over 8

Ketel Marte Total over 1.5 bases

Yanier Diaz hits a home run

In a game where we expect a lot of points, we’re betting on a solid underdog win for today’s SGP. Each pitcher is throwing a heavy dose of fastball and we’re focusing on ways to counter that.

The first of those legs, combined with our best bet, is Ketel Marte getting over 1.5 total bases. There’s not much to say about that; Marte is one of the best fastball hitters in baseball this season. His +16 run value against the four-seamer is near the top of the sport, as is his batting average of nearly .390.

We’re also taking a guy who has already given us big wins in previous articles this season and going for a home run. That’s Yanier Diaz. He also hits the fastball the hardest of any Astros player, at a rate of nearly 60%. This simple logic of fading pitchers who throw fastballs over 50% of the time has served us well in the past. We’ll try it again here.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Diamondbacks vs Astros odds

Diamondbacks vs Astros live odds

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Opening Odds

• Money line: Arizona +120 | Houston -142
• Execute line: Arizona +1.5 (-178) | Houston -1.5 (+146)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Astros have dominated this series lately, posting an 8-2 record in their last 10 meetings, including two straight wins in this last game.
• Arizona has been a tough team to bet on lately, going 3-7 in its last 10 games and losing over four units.
• Things have gone better for the Astros, who have a 7-3 record in their last ten games, giving bettors almost two units.
• With that in mind, Houston has won just one of top hitter Justin Verlander’s last five starts.

Diamondbacks vs. Astros trend

The Astros have reached the run line in 50 of their last 86 games (+18.05 units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Astros here.

Game info Diamondbacks vs. Astros

Diamondbacks vs Astros: Latest injuries

Diamondbacks vs Astros weather

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