• WR AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles – Over 5.5 pass catches: Last season, Brown had eight or more targets in 13 of his 16 games, surpassing that mark 11 times.

• QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – Under 37.5 rushing yards: Saquon Barkley was expected to do much of the groundwork – most likely at the expense of some of Hurts’ planned runs.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

São Paulo, Brazil, hosts the first NFC matchup of the 2024 season, pitting two teams with their eyes on a playoff run. The rare Friday night clash is shaping up to be a high-profile matchup, with both Philadelphia (seventh) and Green Bay (ninth) ranked in the top 10 of the PFF Power Rankings and both effectively open the year 2024 on the road.

Jordan LoveThe Packers are heading into the new year with momentum after finishing the 2023 season on a high note, winning their first playoff game of the Love era, beating the Cowboys 48-32 in Dallas. Green Bay appears to have found another franchise passer in Love, who led the league in PFF passing grade (89.1) as of Week 7 last season.

While Love’s weapons may not be spectacular, he elevates the play around him to a new level. That should bode well for the newest addition to this offense, running back Josh Jacobswhose presence will certainly help open up the coverage if he can return to his 2022 form that resulted in a league-leading PFF rushing grade of 91.9.

Conversely, the Eagles are looking to turn things around after losing momentum at the end of last season. Despite their rough finish, general manager Howie Roseman went to work in the offseason to fill the gaps in this roster. The raid by the former division rival Saquon Barkley to beat this backfield and trade for Jahan Dotson to complement an already dangerous receiver group and bring his offseason moves into the headlines.

The reinforcements were not limited to the offense, but Roseman also filled the gap in his secondary by bringing in cornerback Quinyon Mitchell in the first round. Nevertheless, the pride of this Philly defense lies in a vicious pass rush, led by the second-year pass rusher Jalen Carter and former breakout edge rusher for the Jets Bryce Huff.

WR AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Over 5.5 receptions (-124) — 0.6% PFF Greenline Edge

Without question, AJ Brown is one of the best receivers in the league and is one of the best receivers in this position in almost every respect. He is also quarterback Jalen injured‘ favorite target and therefore enjoys a heavy workload. Last season, Brown had eight or more targets in 13 of his 16 games, surpassing that mark 11 times.

The All-Pro receiver is not only a target monster in this offense – with a threat rate that is almost 7 percentage points better than any other Eagle – but he is also one of the The NFL’s most targeted receivers in general, especially in late downs, where he ranked fifth in the NFL.

Brown is also one of the most physical receivers in the game and recovers contested balls with impressive speed. In 2023, he recovered 14 contested balls, the 10th most at the position.

When Hurts finds Brown, good things happen.

QB Jalen injured, Philadelphia Eagles: Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-117) — 1.3% PFF Greenline Edge

On the surface, it may seem odd to discount the mileage of a dual-threat quarterback, especially a player as talented as Jalen injuredbut this limit is a bit too high – and the numbers seem to confirm this.

Although Hurts had more than 150 attempts and a PFF rushing grade of 76.7 last season, he only managed to surpass that total in rushing yards in four of his 18 games, with more than 26% of his runs coming off quarterback sneaks.

In addition, Saquon Barkley will also do a lot of the work on the ground – most likely at the expense of some of Hurts’ planned runs – and it’s harder to predict Hurts crossing that line.