According to British online gambling company Betfair, more than $58 million was bet on the outcome of the US presidential election from Friday morning to Monday morning.

With just one day left until Election Day and what could be one of the closest races in history, former President Donald Trump’s odds have fallen from 8/15 to 4/5, reducing his chances of winning from 65 percent to 57 percent have. Friday and Saturday are the two biggest days in the 2024 election market since its inception.

“Saturday night’s move was sparked by a new poll from the highly respected Des Moines Register that showed (Vice President Kamala) Harris leading Trump in Iowa, a state that was not a swing state in the last two elections,” Betfair said said spokesman Sam Rosbottom.

The Iowa poll by respected pollster Ann Selzer found Harris leading Trump 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the ruby ​​red state. Iowa voted for Trump in the last two elections, but voted for former President Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008.

“We have never seen such a divergence from a US election favorite at this stage of the campaign,” Rosbottom said.

Despite the slip-up, Trump remains the favorite to win, according to Betfair, which put Harris’ odds at 5/4, giving the Democratic candidate a 43 percent chance of winning.

Rosbottom said the election was a “blockbuster” event for betting markets. In total, $218 million has been bet on the US election outcome on the site, and “we expect a lot more in the next 48 hours,” Rosbottom added.

Newsweek The Trump campaign emailed for comment.

Betting markets are becoming increasingly popular as election predictions, but their reliability varies. Unlike polls, which poll voters directly, betting markets reflect the feelings and behaviors of those willing to bet money on an outcome. This approach can provide a real-time snapshot of public trust, but is also influenced by external factors such as current polls or high-profile events. Studies show that betting markets sometimes accurately predict winners, especially when large amounts of data are available. However, they are not foolproof and can be influenced by emotions or misinformation or distorted by participants who are not representative of the broader electorate.

According to the latest polling averages from poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Harris and Trump are incredibly close in recent polls, with Harris ahead by less than a point. The last time they were this close in the polls was in July.

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