Week 1 of the 2024 college football season includes a Sunday night primetime matchup between the No. 23 USC Trojans and the No. 13 LSU Tigers at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.

Both teams are replacing Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks, as Garrett Nussmeier steps in for LSU, replacing 2023 winner Jayden Daniels, and Miller Moss steps into the shoes of 2022 winner Caleb Williams for the Trojans. USC begins its first season in the Big Ten Conference, while LSU plays in a 16-team SEC.

These two storied programs have only met twice in their history, and not since 1984. Kickoff will be a neutral-site game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: LSSU (-4)
Money line: LSU (-185), USC (+155)
Over/Under: 64.5

Distribution of the first half: LSU -2.5 (-120), USC +2.5 (Even)
LSU Total Points: Over 34.5 (-115), Under 34.5 (-115)
USC Total Points: Over 29.5 (-120), Under 29.5 (-110)

Game selection: USC +4 against LSU

Two programs with new quarterbacks, who can we as bettors trust more? I’m going with the Trojans and Miller Moss. Moss has plenty of college experience, was a backup for several years and started in the Holiday Bowl, where he threw six touchdowns on 372 passing yards. Moss fits well into USC’s high-powered offense. More than that, I trust USC head coach Lincoln Riley. One of the most innovative offensive minds in college football, Riley has developed a system to maximize quarterback performance through a spread offense that encourages aggressive deep passes and quick reads.

Much the same could be said about LSU and head coach Brian Kelly. The problem for me, however, is that LSU no longer has offensive catalyst Jayden Daniels. Daniels was not just a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, he was the man. Not only was he exceptional, but he set an LSU record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a season (1,134) and delivered game-winning performances, including a historic game against Florida in which he threw for 606 total yards, setting an SEC record. Daniels had qualities that are difficult to replace.

Although Garrett Nussmeier has shown promise, this transition period could bring more challenges for LSU’s offense as it adjusts to a new leader. Plus, the game will be played on neutral ground in Las Vegas, which mitigates the home-court advantage SEC teams like LSU typically enjoy. Get the four points with USC.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information

• These were two of the top three teams last season to score over 1,000 points and the top two among the power conference teams.

• USC: 1-10 ATS in neutral-court games since 2014, worst in the FBS over the entire period

• LSU: 1-5 ATS in neutral-court games since 2020, third-worst in the FBS over the entire period

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