This week’s NFL action begins with the Denver Broncos visiting the New Orleans Saints on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

The Saints entered the game as 0.5-point favorites, but the line has since shifted toward the Broncos. New Orleans is dealing with the injury issue that will keep some key players out, including wide receivers Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave, while several others are listed as questionable for Thursday’s contest.

Denver is coming off a home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Saints have suffered four straight losses, including a blowout loss last week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which they gave up 51 points at home.

Thursday’s game features the lowest score of the week (36.5).

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Broncos -3
Money line: Broncos (-150), Saints (+130)
Over/Under: 36.5

Distribution in the first half: Broncos -0.5 (-110), Saints +0.5 (-110)
Broncos total points: 19.5 (above -120/below -110)
Saints Total Points: 17.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

The props

Passing by

Bo Nix’s total passing yards: 199.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Nothing overtaking TDs: 1+ (-325), 2+ (+165), 3+ (+700), 4+ (+2500)
Spencer Rattler’s total passing yards: 174.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Rattler passing touchdowns: 1+ (-225), 2+ (+225), 3+ (+1000), 4+ (+4000)

Rush

Alvin Kamara Total Rushing Yards: 69.5 (above -110/below -120)
Javonte Williams Total Rushing Yards: 44.5 (above -120/below -110)
Nix total rushing yards: 24.5 (above -135/below +105)
Rattler Total Rushing Yards: 19.5 (above -130/below +100)

Reception

Courtland Sutton receiving total yards: 44.5 (above -125/below -105)
Devaughn Vele total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Kamara total receiving yards: 34.5 (above -125/below -105)
Troy Franklin total receiving yards: 19.5 (above -135/below +105)
J. Williams total receiving yards: 19.5 (above -110/below -120)

The election of Andre Snellings

play

Where Tyler Fulghum leans in the Broncos-Saints game

Tyler Fulghum explains why he’s picking the Broncos’ points against the Saints.

Saints team overall UNDER 17.5 points (-130)

The Saints will likely be without starting quarterback Derek Carr again (doubtful, weird), which would put Spencer Rattler in position to make his second straight start. While Rattler had a passable NFL debut just four days ago, the Saints’ 27 points in this game were deceptive. Their scoring drives, all of which occurred in the second quarter, included a punt return touchdown, a 17-yard field goal drive after an interception, and a 10-yard touchdown drive after another interception.

In his final eight drives of the game, Rattler led the Saints to five punts, two interceptions and zero points scored. The Broncos are an elite defense, ranking in the top five in the NFL in fewest points allowed (fourth, 18.7 PPG allowed), yards allowed (fourth, 278.2 YPG) and passing yards allowed (fifth, 170). .8 yards). This defense, in a short week, against a Rattler-led offense that was hit particularly hard at the skill positions – Chris Olave (out, concussion), Alvin Kamara (questionable, hand), Rashid Shaheed (out, knee), Taysom Hill (questionable, ribs) – likely leads to a low-scoring game for the Saints.

Joe Fortenbaugh’s choice

By First Bet, published on Mondays

The number 37 is crucial when it comes to betting NFL totals, so let’s get ahead of the impending move and commit to 37.5 now because I see this ending at 36.5 or lower. Since 2017, the Thursday night strike rate of 40 or less is 20-7, a highly profitable strike rate of 74%. I know New Orleans just scored 51 points and 594 total yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but this Denver offense is a dink-and-dunk team that can’t stretch the field as far as the Buccaneers can. For those interested in the derivatives market, it’s worth noting that Denver went scoreless in the first half in three of its six contests.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Excluding the London game, the away favorites posted a perfect ATS of 9-0 in Week 6, the most covers of away favorites without an ATS loss in a single week in the Super Bowl era (excluding international games).

• The Broncos are 3-0 ATS this season, all underdogs.

• The Broncos are 0-6 ATS (0-3 ATS under Sean Payton) in their last six games with a short break. The Saints are 1-6 ATS (0-4 ATS since the start of last season) with a short break under Dennis Allen.

• The Unders in prime time are 81-52-1 over the last three seasons.

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